In 2008 the Republicans have a big disadvantage in the Senate races. They have to defend 21 seats, while the Democrats only have to defend twelve. It’s not impossible that the Democrats might pick up 10 or more seats and get a filibuster proof majority. It’s easiest to see why if we look at the Republican seats that must be defended. I’ll rank them in order of their vulnerability.
1. Wayne Allard-CO. Allard is retiring and we have a strong candidate in Rep. Mark Udall. Colorado is trending Democratic and the Republicans do not have a strong candidate.
2. Pete Domenici-NM. Domenici is implicated in ProsecutorGate and he is already showing signs of age. His heir apparent, Rep. Heather Wilson, is also implicated in the growing scandal.
3. Gordon Smith-OR. Oregon is going to be a very hard place for Republicans to win in a presidential election year. Smith is already running away from the war, but it may be too late.
4. Norm Coleman-MN. Minnesota has been the most reliably Democratic state in the nation during presidential elections. Mike Ciresi and Al Franken are going to duke it out for the right to take Coleman out.
5. John Sununu-NH. New Hampshire Republicans were decimated in 2006 and the trend could continue if the Dems select a good campaigner.
6. John Warner-VA. Warner might retire, but even if he doesn’t, he will face a formidable challenge from former Gov. Mark Warner.
7. Susan Collins-ME. Collins is popular. But the GOP brand is wearing thin in New England. Rep. Tom Allen is a formidable candidate with more money than Collins. I’d rank this higher, but I don’t underestimate the resilience of Maine’s Senators.
8. Elizabeth Dole-NC. Dole was a disaster as head of the NRSC. She has done nothing of note as a Senator. North Carolina is trending Democratic. And there are several strong candidates that the Dems can field.
9. Lamar Alexander-TN. Alexander is a first-term Senator and he has not distinguished himself. Tennessee seems to be trending modestly to the Democrats. Harold Ford Jr. might run again. Gov. Phil Bredesen is immensely popular. Alexander is definitely beatable.
10. John Cornyn-TX. Cornyn is polling extremely poorly and is definitely vulnerable. A lot of data suggest that Texas is trending heavily Democratic. The right candidate can win this seat.
11. Larry Craig-ID. It looks like the hammer is about to come down on Craig’s personal sexual preferences. He appears finished as a national politician within the GOP. The question is whether Larry Grant or anyone else can grasp this opportunity to win an open seat.
12. Saxby Chambliss-GA. Georgia is one of the most reliably Republican states and it may still be trending Republican. But a rematch with Max Cleland would be compelling and could result in a victory for Cleland.
13. James Inhofe-OK. I talked to a guy from Oklahoma last night that said there are rumors that Inhofe will retire. I can’t find much supporting evidence for that, however. If Rep. Dan Boren runs against Inhofe, it would be a good race.
14. Michael Enzi-WY. Enzi is kind of a non-entity in the Senate. But Wyoming is still a very red state. Gary Trauner almost won a state-wide race for the Wyoming at-large House seat. He would presumably have at least a chance to win a state-wide Senate race. But in a presidential year, it’s hard to predict a victory here.
15. Thad Cochran-MS. Cochran is rumored to be considering retirement. If this seat becomes an open seat, it would likely match former Attorney General Mike Moore against lunatic Chip Pickering. Moore would have a decent chance.
16. Pat Roberts-KS. Roberts could retire. Right now, it looks like he will run for another term. Roberts received 83% of the vote in 2002. The Democrats have been making progress in Kansas lately, but this is a long shot.
17. Mitch McConnell-KY. McConnell is the minority leader and he is extremely well-funded. But, in a perfect storm, he could go down.
18. Ted Stevens-AK. Stevens is in his mid-80’s. If he runs, he will probably win. But, if he doesn’t…?
19. Chuck Hagel-NE. Hagel promised in 1996 not to run for a third-term. He’s also thinking of running for president. If this seat becomes an open seat, it might be competitive.
20. Pete Jeff Sessions-AL. Sessions is a lunatic, but that is not a liability in Alabama. Rep. Artur Davis is thinking of a challenge. He stands little chance.
21. Lindsey Graham-SC. If Graham is selected as a Vice-Presidential candidate it might create an open seat. That is the only way we can hope to pick up this seat.
I really only see 4 or 5 safe seats for the Republicans. The Dems have to defend Landrieu’s seat. Tim Johnson’s health is a concern. Tom Harkin might retire. The GOP thinks they might be able to take Kerry out. But, on the whole, it looks like the Dems should expect to pick up somewhere between four and ten seats.
