Mike Henry, Hillary Clinton’s deputy campaign manager, made a boo-boo. He wrote up a memorandum advising Ms. Clinton to bale on the Iowa caucuses and then he somehow let it slip into another campaign’s hands.
Howard Wolfson, the Clinton campaign’s communications director, said neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mark Penn, her chief strategist, had seen the memorandum. A copy of it was provided to The New York Times by an intermediary who said it had come from a rival campaign.
One thing the whole Alberto Gonzales thing has taught me is that no one ever, ever, reads memos except the people they get leaked to. And I know that if I were Ms. Clinton’s Deputy Campaign Manager and I wrote up a detailed strategy memo, the last people I would want to read it would be the candidate and her chief strategist. That’s because I like to write up detailed strategy memos on toilet paper and then use them to wipe my ass.
In any case, Team Clinton is a little bit spooked about the whole thing.
The Clinton campaign said Mr. Henry’s advice had been rejected. Soon after learning that the memorandum would become public, the campaign announced that Mrs. Clinton, a New York Democrat, would be campaigning in Iowa this weekend.
Get thee to Des Moines, Hillary, before the turds really start to hit the fan. This all reminds me why I have no stomach for another Clinton presidency. No thanks.
As for Mr. Henry, he’s probably correct to advise against campaigning in Iowa. Except for one very important thing. Iowa gives Hillary a chance to do a knockout punch. If she wins there it is probably all over and she’ll easily carry Nevada and then New Hampshire. But if she loses there then someone will be a winner. They’ll be a winner in the media and Hillary will have to kill them off somewhere else.
Does she really want to concede that advantage to Edwards or Obama? Might it not be best to never let them get their heads above water? Could be.
Except for another important thing. And here Mr. Henry is making sense.
…”I propose skipping the Iowa caucuses and dedicating more of Senator Clinton’s time and financial resources on the primary in New Hampshire on Jan. 22, the Nevada caucus on Jan. 19, the primaries in South Carolina and Florida on Jan. 29 and the 20-plus state primaries on Feb. 5.”…
Mr. Henry’s memorandum, dated May 21, said Mrs. Clinton would have to spend $15 million and 70 days in the state to be competitive there, and suggested that if she did not pull out she might not have the money she would need for the rapid-fire series of contests that follow. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 14, with the New Hampshire primary eight days later, Florida a week after that and 22 other states on Feb. 5…
In making the case that Iowa is not the power it once was, Mr. Henry also noted that Iowans will not be the first to vote, because 15 states have early vote or vote-by-mail programs that will permit residents to begin voting before the Iowa caucuses, diminishing its influence.
“My recommendation is to pull completely out of Iowa and spend the money and Senator Clinton’s time on other states,” he wrote, adding, “Worst case scenario: this effort may bankrupt the campaign and provide little if any political advantage.”…
Even though no one in Hillary’s campaign ever read this advice, it is sound thinking. Why risk losing if it is going to be expensive and you’ll have little time to refill the coffers? Why not concentrate on Nevada and New Hampshire and save your money for the big national primary day?
It comes down to this. Hillary could win it all by winning Iowa. But she probably can’t lose it all by avoiding the contest. While someone will emerge from Iowa as a hero that she needs to vanquish, at least they won’t have done it by beating her and at least she’ll have a big cash advantage.
But…just like the current administration, Team Clinton doesn’t read.
