Tom Friedman says ‘In or Out’ while Stephen Biddle says ‘Go Deep or Get Out’. It’s strange to see two different people make the same argument on the same day…one in the New York Times and one in the Washington Post. They agree that it makes no sense to stay in Iraq with less troops. Either we ramp it up, or we should completely bug out. No half measures. No compromise solutions. It’s true that Friedman makes an exception for Kurdistan (and I tentatively agree), but they both are adamant that we not stick around with some half-ass plan to train Iraqi troops or hunt terrorists.
I’m glad they are making that point. I think Biddle put it best.
Moderation and centrism are normally the right instincts in American politics, and many lawmakers in both parties desperately want to find a workable middle ground on Iraq. But while the politics are right, the military logic is not.
I saw Sen. Mark Pryor on the Senate floor today pleading with his colleagues to not take party-line votes on an issue as important as Iraq. He wanted them to embrace Sen. Salazar’s mealy-mouthed do-nothing compromise amendment. It’s a nice sentiment, but it isn’t happening and it shouldn’t happen. One side in this debate mist win and win decisively.
But I want to talk about something else that Friedman touched on. In discussing the advantages of leaving Iraq he discussed Iran.
Fourth, we will restore our deterrence with Iran. Tehran will no longer be able to bleed us through its proxies in Iraq, and we will be much freer to hit Iran — should we ever need to — once we’re out. Moreover, Iran will by default inherit management of the mess in southern Iraq, which, in time, will be an enormous problem for Tehran.
Before you throw up your hands and say ‘Great. No matter what we do we wind up making an attack on Iran more likely’, hear my out.
Iran is not all the horrible things that its worst detractors like to allege. But they are definitely not our friends. They are not friendly with our Arab allies. And I don’t think they have anymore ability to control Iraq than we have. If we want to screw Iran we can do little better than to put the entire mess in Iraq directly in their laps. Pulling out should weaken Iran and tie them down, while restoring our deterrent credibility when it comes to convincing them to cooperate with the IAEA and other international efforts to prevent them from becoming another nuclear power.
