Sometimes it helps to have a visual aid. We keep reading shallow analysis about how bad things are for the Republicans. These pieces are potentially useful for a variety of reasons. They discourage and demoralize Republicans, making them less likely to run for office or to donate money and time to those that do run. But it seems as though they are having a negligible effect on the Republicans that are in office and making policy. The Democrats have not exactly given up on ending the war…they have moved to a strategy of creating a terrifying threat of landslide elections in 2008. The hope is not just that this landslide will happen and allow the country to change course. It’s also part of the strategy that, if the threat can be made manifest enough, the Republicans will finally crack and break with the president and his war. So far it hasn’t worked, but the threat continues to grow.
For example:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which focuses on fundraising for House races, has almost a 14-to-1 lead in cash on hand over its Republican counterpart, and a recent Gallup Poll showed Americans favor Democrats over Republicans by 15 percentage points.
Add to this that is far more likely that the Democrats will gain a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the Senate than it is that the Republicans will gain back the two seats they need to retake the upper chamber. Add, also, the huge fundraising advantage the Democratic presidential contenders are enjoying. Toss in retirements, scandals, some unfortunate deaths, and horrible recruiting, and the prognosis for the GOP has never been so bleak. In fact, in my entire lifetime neither party has ever faced such a dismal future.
But…again…saying it is one thing, and seeing it is another. Let’s take a look at the Republican members of the Senate committee on Homeland Security & Government Reform, (you can see their jurisdiction here).
Listed by seniority
Ranking Member
Sen. Susan Collins (ME): she is up for re-election and is facing Rep. Tom Allen. Rep. Allen already represents half the state of Maine and was re-elected in 2006 with 61% of the vote. Collins is in the fight of her life and probably is not helped by the fact that this committee’s chairman, Joe Lieberman, is fundraising for her.Sen. Ted Stevens (AK): Stevens is under a rigorous FBI investigation for potential bribe-taking. He was born in 1923. He may retire. Regardless, he will find it extremely difficult to get re-elected.
Sen. George Voinovich (OH): Voinovich is not facing re-election until 2010, but he is widely believed to be the most vulnerable Republican up for reelection in that cycle. The GOP in Ohio is in freefall.
Sen. Norm Coleman (MN): Coleman’s one term in the Senate was largely a fluke resulting from the untimely death of Paul Wellstone and his controversial memorial service. His approval rating is an anemic forty-five percent, compared with Sen. Klobuchar’s 61%. Coleman’s chances are further diminished by the fact that 2008 is a presidential election year.
Sen. Tom Coburn (OK): Coburn is the only seemingly safe member of this committee and could well be the only member still serving in 2011.
Sen. Pete Domenici (NM): Suffering from age-related illness and scandal, Domenici is not seeking re-election. The Democrats should be slightly favored to take over his seat.
Sen. John Warner (VA): Warner is retiring. The Democrats are heavily favored to take over his seat.
Sen. John Sununu (NH): Sununu is up for re-election and is widely thought to be the most vulnerable member of the Senate. Fmr. Governor Jeanne Shaheen has a huge lead in the polls.
This is just one committee, but it is not unlikely that Voinovich and Coburn will be the only members remaining on it in 2009. And Voinovich will struggle to hold on in 2010. These are the Republicans specifically charged with protecting our Homeland Security and providing oversight of government affairs. Clearly they have not been doing a good job on either front.
Maybe when the Republicans see their future in a visual form they will be a little more inclined to get off their butts and get pro-active.
