I wonder if Condi is smart enough to turn the fiasco in Iraq into a powerful bargaining chip during the negotiations between Israel and Palestinian factions in Annapolis. Iraq may be a lot of things right now, but it certainly seems destined to remain under permanent US occupation or eventually fall under Iranian influence.
Let’s presume that the Iranian regime will not be brought down by force and Iraq’s democracy is allowed to flower (I know, I know). Any ‘real’ form of Iraqi democracy will ultimately place the country squarely under Iranian influence. But that has not happened yet and the administration has shown plenty of resolve in forestalling that eventuality. This resolve turns Iraq into a bargaining chip: “You know you want it, you know you’ll get it, but you’ll have to ask and ask real nice because we can dictate WHEN you get it.”
US Iraq policy has generally and indisputably sucked. There is one possible way to make good out of this: Trade Iran a valuable asset they will likely get anyway (but we have the power to stall it indefinitely) in exchange for cutting funding to Hamas and other anti-Israeli forces and some sort of security arrangement to prevent military occupation of Iraq by Iran. This would peel away of some significant layers of the Onion of Middle East peace. The bargain is enforceable by both sides and is therefore more likely to be adhered to than a coercive surrender or military solution. Even to be able to dangle the possibility during the negotiations may be helpful.
I’m sure this is all fantasy, but wouldn’t it be nice to polish up this turd and get something real out of this mis-adventure?
