If you’ve ever built sandcastles at the beach, you know that when the tide comes in, sometimes there is an initial wave that takes out a part of your complex before the tsunami that destroys it. In political terms, the Republican Party is on the cusp of total destruction, but you can already see areas where the damage is severe. The most obvious area is New England, where Chris Shays is the sole remaining Republican in the House, and he is quite likely to lose his seat next year.
Ohio is another area. Between a tragic death, several retirements, and vulnerable incumbents, the GOP’s House delegation is losing a tremendous amount of seniority and clout. The Republicans lost the Governor’s mansion, one Senate and one House seat last year. They may lose three or more seats next year.
Illinois is looking just as bad. The death of Henry Hyde is merely symbolic, as he had already retired. Dennis Hastert’s abrupt retirement is another matter. Add in Ray LaHood and Jerry Weller whose retirements will cost the Land of Lincoln an Appropriations and a Ways & Means committee seat.
The Republicans are in danger of losing more seats in the New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota suburbs. But there is pier damage is places as unlikely as Alaska, where incumbent Don Young is trailing his 2006 opponent in a recent poll 45%-37%. He beat her 57%-40% just last year.
These are the areas where the Republicans have developed severe weaknesses. And when that next wave rolls in, it may wipe out the Republican Party in New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Midwest, and even Alaska.
And then the Republicans will have to figure out if they want to keep their image as the party of the “vaguely threatening parade of gun fetishists, flat worlders, Mars Explorers, Confederate flag lovers and zombie-eyed-Bible-wavers” we saw in the YouTube debate.
