Anyone that reads this blog knows that I am pulling for Barack Obama and that I have low personal regard for Mrs. and Mr. Clinton. So, yeah, I am biased. But Obama won the night tonight by every available measure. Chuck Todd on MSNBC has done the national delegate estimate (using the most optimistic Clinton campaign projections for California) and got: Obama 841 Clinton 837. It will probably be a slightly larger lead for Obama, but not more than 15-20 additional delegates.
Obama didn’t just win the delegate battle, he won the states battle. Obama won (14) Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Alabama, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Alaska. Clinton won (8) New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Arkansas, California, Arizona, and Oklahoma.
Then there is the expectations game. Obama had two big upsets in Connecticut and Missouri, while Clinton had none.
I’ll have more to say about the race as I have time to look at the results, the exit polls, etc. This morning I laid out what I thought each candidate needed to do to declare victory. Neither of them quite accomplished the goal. For example:
Clinton will be able to claim a victory if she holds on in California, Missouri, New Jersey, and Connecticut. She’ll be able to lay claim to a resounding victory is she wins, in addition, Alabama and Tennessee, and big caucus states like Minnesota.
Well, Clinton failed to hold Missouri and Connecticut, and she was crushed in Alabama and Minnesota. She clearly can’t declare victory in the expectations game. On Obama, I said:
For Obama to get a landslide win he needs to be victorious in California and Missouri, and then either Connecticut or New Jersey.
Two out of three ain’t bad, but without California he can’t claim a landslide win. Nevertheless, only the result in California prevented that outcome.
I don’t see how Clinton can win the nomination now. I think she still has a chance…she didn’t get knocked out…but it’s now Obama’s race to lose. He’s got more money, he’s got more mojo, and Clinton doesn’t have any more Arkansas or New Yorks left on the schedule.
