Obama didn’t just win yesterday, he won big enough to maximize his net gain of delegates out of the four contests. In the Virgin Islands, for example, he won 90% of the vote and captured all three available delegates. His strategy going forward is clear.
In squeezing every delegate out of the small and mid-sized states between now and March 4, and every dollar out of his supporters, Obama is hoping to build a head of steam this month that will make him unstoppable and will lure free-floating superdelegates to his camp.
Meanwhile, Clinton’s strategy is less obvious:
The Clinton camp is braced for Mr Obama to win a series of primary elections over the next three weeks, which they fear could hand the Illinois senator unstoppable momentum in the race for the White House…
The Clinton camp hopes to stop the Obama bandwagon by winning Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4, after which Mrs Clinton is planning to call on party grandees including Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives and Harry Reid, the party’s leader in the Senate, to persuade Mr Obama to stand down.
Clinton aides have privately admitted that Mr Obama would only consider such a move if offered the position of vice presidential running mate, something Mrs Clinton has always been reluctant to consider.
According to that, Obama has already guaranteed himself a place on the ticket. But there’s no explanation for how the Clintons could get the ‘party grandees’ to convince Obama to accept the second spot. I don’t know how Maine is going to vote today, but Obama has already won 18 states to Clinton’s 10 (with New Mexico tied). If Obama sweeps the Potomac primary on Tuesday and Wisconsin next week, he’ll be up either 21-11 or 22-10 in states won (plus the District of Columbia). Even if Clinton wins Ohio and Texas on March 4th, she’ll surely lose Wyoming on March 8th and Mississippi on March 10th. And then there is a six-week break before Pennsylvania.
In a near best case scenario, Clinton might enter the Pennsylvania Intermission even in pledged delegates, but having lost 26 of 40 state contests (including the last two before the break). She’ll be able to justify going ahead with the campaign, but she’ll have no case that Obama should concede. If anything, the pressure will be all the other way. And, of course, this is a near best case scenario.
Clinton aides believe that if Mr Obama does not deliver a knock-out blow before March 4, the advantage will swing back to her and she will argue for a deal in which uncommitted super-delegates unite behind her, to preserve party unity.
But the prospect of a deal behind closed doors, that could brush aside the views of voters in the primaries, is already creating fury in the party.
Donna Brazile, an African American strategist, said last week: “If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party.”
But the Clinton camp fears that a failure to engineer a deal could lead to bitter battles at the Democrat convention in Denver in late August, which could even end with Al Gore, the former vice president, emerging as a compromise candidate.
“There’s a five per cent chance of that happening, but that’s five percent too high,” the Clinton source said.
Al Gore? Interesting…
