Over at Raising Kaine, teacherken references a new poll (.pdf) out of Wisconsin that shows Obama up 50%-39%. It also shows Obama leading among whites, blacks, independents, and Republicans. It shows Obama winning in every age group except the over 65 crowd.
If Obama wins in Virginia, Maryland, and DC today, and wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii next Tuesday, that will make him 10-0 in caucuses and primaries since Super Tuesday. Even including pledged Superdelegates, and before we count the results from today, Obama now has a six delegate lead. And, as Chris Bowers notes:
Over the past thirty days, Obama has won significantly more endorsements from super delegates than Hillary Clinton. According to Democratic Convention Watch, on January 13th, Clinton led Obama 183 to 74 among super delegates. Currently, according to Democratic Convention Watch, Clinton leads Obama 224 to 132 among super delegates. If these numbers are accurate, it would mean that over the past thirty days Obama has received the endorsement of 58 super delegates, while Clinton has received the endorsement of 41. At this point, the only reason Clinton leads among super delegates is because of endorsements that took place before any voting or caucusing began this cycle.
But, she cannot depend on her Superdelegates to maintain their loyalty. Asked if the Superdelegates might overrule the will of the people and nominate Clinton:
Elaine Kamarck, a senior DNC official and super delegate herself, told me Thursday that it would never happen. “Super delegates are cowards – we would never do that.” This, by the way, from a woman who has endorsed Hillary Clinton.
Of course, the Clintons realize they are now behind the eight ball.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.
Even winning Texas and Ohio will probably not be enough:
“She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out,” said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. “The campaign is starting to come to terms with that.” Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.
Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.
Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.
To call out one animated BooTrib reader, I don’t think Arthur Gilroy’s ‘sophisticated’ view of American politics will be vindicated. The Clinton machine better pull out an upset win tonight or February 12th, 2008 is going to be remembered much like April 14th, 1912. That’s the day the RMS Titanic hit an iceberg. It sank the next day.
