I wish Congress would grill Karl Rove as strenuously as they grilled Roger Clemens today. But I want to talk about something else. According to what I saw John King say on CNN and according to the Obama campaign, there is no realistic way that Hillary Clinton can catch up and tie or take the lead in pledged delegates. To do so, she would would have to win the remaining contests by an average of about thirty points. Now, Mark Penn, Clinton’s chief strategist, has issued a memo called The Path to The Nomination. And he says quite clearly that the nomination is about votes and delegates.
Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived “momentum.”
But there is no plausible way for Clinton to wind up with the most delegates…at least not the delegates that are selected by a vote by ordinary citizens.
Now, I understand that the Clinton campaign is not yet willing to concede the election and that they need to be able to provide a rationale for why they are soldiering on. So, I don’t object to Penn’s memo on the politics, but I still think there is a problem. The Clintons really do understand that they cannot win the pledged delegate count, but they are going to try for a brokered convention. Let me point out a few things here:
1) Despite perceived wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, Clinton tied and lost those contests, respectively, in the delegates awarded. While Obama is perceived as the winner in Missouri, the delegates were distributed equally. Obama has received more delegates in 22 contests, Clinton has received more delegates in 10, and they tied in two.
2) So far, Obama has received 9,326,079 popular votes to Clinton’s 8,638,911.
3) Obama has a (realistically) insurmountable 1116-989 pledged delegate advantage.
It is conceivable that Clinton could take over the popular vote, but not realistic that she could take over the pledged delegate vote or the advantage in contests won. And maybe her potential to close the delegate gap and overtake the lead in the popular vote is enough reason to stay in the contest through March 4th. But she is, at this point, still banking on winning a brokered convention. And she’s banking on winning despite a deficit in the pledged delegates.
I’ll grant her the right to go forward to the March 4th contests with this slim justification. But after March 4th there is a caucus in Wyoming on March 8th (which Obama will probably win) and a primary in Mississippi on March 10th (which Obama almost definitely will win), and then there is a six-week layoff until the Pennsylvania primary. I submit that Clinton should not go on to Pennsylvania even if she wins in Ohio and Texas on March 4th, unless she can make a compelling argument that she is so deserving of the nomination that it is worth a brokered convention where the will of the pledged delegates will be overturned.
