Momentum’s all Obama. had the set tuned to Fox adult cartoons, good mix of spots for Obama, none for Clinton (or Repubs, Paul should have bought.)
Obama’s Iraq spot was an excellent fit for American Dad.
All had a notable flaw. Type only of “Vote Feb. 19”. Should scream THIS TUESDAY. For spots on shows targeting the 18-22 demographic, I’d even add “you can register at the polls. bring Photo ID and proof of address.”
With no school tomorrow, everyone stuck at home due to weather, these should have been especially high viewership for the youngest eligibles. In this update, I’m presuming Obama had the monopoly for these shows in other Wisconsin markets.
On to the predictions…
1st (Ryan) narrow Obama, 3-3 NO CHANGE
2nd (Baldwin) Obama 5-3. NO CHANGE I’m hearing a lot of 6-2 locally, but I don’t buy it, Clinton even in the suburbs will dilute Obama’s Madison romp.
3d (Kind) Obama UPGRADE from 3-3 to 50% chance of 4-2. based on reports from the ground in rural Counties especially Trempeleau and along the Kickapoo, plus the success of Obama’s visit to Eau Claire. Congressman Kind’s said he’ll cast his SD vote with the district winner.
4th: (Moore) Obama likely 3-3, big turnout favors an Obama 4-2 delegate split, as Clinton’s support from public employee Unions is diluted. 20% chance Obama 4-2.
5th (Sensenbrenner) Clinton 3-2, on prochoice Republican womens’ crossover NO CHANGE
6th (Petri) Obama, 3-2, I’m becoming confident on this one. UPGRADE OBAMA
7th (Obey) Obama, Dicey as to whether he makes the 4-2 split. He romped in Duluth, and the Eau Claire and Stevens Point campuses had monster turnout in ’06. Eau Claire County straddles the District line. now 70% chance of the 4-2. UPGRADE OBAMA
8th (Kagen) 6 delegates. Tossup. Was lean Clinton UPGRADE OBAMA. Kagen’s also said he’ll cast his SD with the District’s voters.
I’m now calling 50% turnout among 18-25s.
Clinton spent the day well in Milwaukee, where true face to face may have worked better than staged mega-events. I haven’t been watching enough tube to rate her spots.
Statewide, Obama by 6-8% UPGRADE FROM 4-6%
Trend Spotted: Ron Paul>Obama among younger rural and smalltown voters who’d friended my campaign Myspace in ’06. Some substituting Obama for Paul on “top friends,” more putting Obama ahead.
