What?
That’s what we are now hearing about the Texas reality. Of the 2.8 million voters in the Texas primary, based on exit polls about 252,000 were Republican and about 618,000 were self-identified as conservative, and many of them came out on Rush Limbaugh’s urgings to vote for Hillary Clinton. Did many of those voters actually prefer Hillary as president? Not likely. Many Republicans and a lot of conservatives, who voted for Hillary in the Texas primary (and Ohio as well), apparently took Limbaugh’s plea to heart.
Why Hillary? Because a Hillary nomination is believed to equate with a McCain win in November.
Is Karl Rove perhaps working behind the scene. This turn of events does not auger well for Hillary as nominee. What do the conservatives know that we don’t? In short, that Obama, if nominated, will beat McCain and will beat him by a greater margin, at least according to the latest national poll.
The article, Live from New York…Vote Hillary! by Adam McKay (Huffington Post) makes the case that Republicans prefer to run against Hillary and it is not because they expect to lose. And while it was both the Republican and conservative vote that made the day for Hillary, it is all part of a Republican drive to help Hillary win the nomination.
Let’s face it, the Republicans love Hillary Clinton. They quietly in their heart of hearts pine for her to win the democratic nomination. The Republican Governor of Florida is rolling out the red carpet for a second primary which will favor Clinton. Pat Buchanan can’t be quiet about how much he respects Hillary. Even Ann Coulter pal and SNL sketch writer Jim Downey has written several sketches portraying Hillary as picked on by the press. Downey is one of the all time great sketch writers but I know he’s no Hillary fan. Don’t get me wrong, I like Hillary and still think Bill Clinton is one of our great presidents. But it’s weird. Weird like….well, Pat Buchanan praising Hillary Clinton.
Now it’s possible the corporate right wants her to win in order to keep afloat the huge economy of Hillary hate bumper stickers that if my numbers are correct generates over 55 billion dollars in revenue for the south. They also could be supporting her because after over seven years of the absolute incompetence that is the Bush administration they finally get that corporate welfare and tax breaks for millionaires are not good for the economy. Or maybe they think she’s Hillary Swank.
(snip)
So put your bumper stickers on your cars Repubs: “Hillary in ’08, Up Until November, and then McCain!” If you drive an Excursion it’ll fit.
In the days running up to the Ohio and Texas primaries, Rush Limbaugh urged his conservative audience to vote in the Democratic race, and to vote for Hillary. “I want Hillary to stay in this,” he said.
David Weigel on Reason.Com (It’s Rush Wot Won It) analyzed the Tuesday primary results for the Limbaugh effect:
In the earlier Wisconsin primary, Republicans made up 9 percent of the Democratic primary vote. Obama won them 72-28 over Clinton. Just as tellingly, 14 percent of primary voters said they were “conservative,” and Obama won them 59-40, a bigger margin than he won with liberals or moderates. Tactical voters who said Obama stood a better chance of winning in November? They went for him 87-13.
Now, look at Ohio. Once again 9 percent of voters were Republicans, but Obama and Clinton split them evenly, 49-49. Once again, 14 percent of voters were “conservatives,” and Obama and Clinton split them 48-48. (Obama did better with them than he did with liberals and moderates.) Those tactical voters who thought Obama could win gave him a 80-18 victory, a margin twelve points smaller than the margin in Wisconsin.
It’s a similar story in Texas, where Limbaugh has the most listeners of any of these states. Obama won the Republican vote 52-47, but conservatives (22 percent of all voters, up from 15 percent in the Kerry-Edwards primary) went against Obama. For the first time since Super Tuesday, they were Clinton’s best ideological group: She won them 53-43. And Clinton won 13 percent of the people who said Obama was the most electable candidate.
Ohio didn’t wind up being very close, but Clinton won the Texas primary by about 98,000 votes out of 2.8 million cast. (snip) Clinton truly might have won the Texas primary on the backs of Rush Limbaugh listeners.
In short, conservatives voted against Obama by a wide margin, while twice as many Republicans voted against him in Texas and Ohio than in the Wisconsin race that preceded Limbaugh’s call. It is not clear that the Limbaugh Republican/conservative vote would have made up for the 3% difference between candidates in Ohio.
If Democrats wish to win in November, it is smart to listen to the opposition and understand it. The Limbaugh Republican/conservative vote won the day for Hillary in Texas. But even before Limbaugh, there was McCain, who campaigned hard for Hillary. Thus, part of the Republican strategy is to get Hillary nominated and avoid a loss in November to Obama. Pretty slick.
