I am getting really tired of sloppy analysis. Writing in today’s Philadelphia Inquirer, Jonathan Last predicts that Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. I have no problem with making predictions, but let’s look at his reasoning (emphasis mine).
Obama still leads in pledged delegates and the popular vote, as long as you exclude the results in Michigan and Florida (more of which anon). Democratic primaries in 10 states, Puerto Rico and Guam remain – and the demographic makeup of those states is largely favorable for Clinton. To this point, demography has been destiny – and there’s no reason to think that will change. Obama should win Mississippi, North Carolina, and a couple of smaller states. Clinton should win Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia.
If that is what happens, neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination before the Democratic convention in August. Obama would arrive in Denver with a lead of perhaps two dozen pledged delegates.
Is this accurate? To test it out, I decided to use the slightly flawed Slate Delegate Calculator. I assigned a numerical value to each candidate’s performance in all the remaining contests. I gave each state or territory to the candidate that Last suggested will win, and I chose margins in keeping with similar contests that have already taken place. Let’s see what I found.
Mississippi Mar. 11- Obama 58% Clinton 42% (O- 19, C- 14)
Pennsylvania Apr. 22- Obama 44% Clinton 56% (O- 70, C- 88)
Guam- May 3- Obama 45% Clinton 55% (O- 2, C- 2)
Indiana May 6- Obama 46% Clinton 54% (O- 33, C-39)
North Carolina May 6- Obama 53% Clinton 47% (O- 61, O- 54)
West Virginia May 13- Obama 42% Clinton 58% (O- 12, C- 16)
Kentucky May 20- Obama 39% Clinton 61% (O- 20, C- 31)
Oregon May 20- Obama 54% Clinton 46% (O- 28, C- 24)
Puerto Rico June 1- Obama 45% Clinton 55% (O- 25, C- 30)
Montana June 3- Obama 61% Clinton 39% (O- 10, C- 6)
South Dakota June 3- Obama 61% Clinton 39% (O- 9, C- 6)
That adds up to 289 pledged delegates for Obama and 320 310 pledged delegates for Clinton. While the Slate Calculator isn’t 100% predictive, a net of 21 pledged delegates is a reasonable baseline estimate given Last’s assumptions. Now, let’s plug these numbers into the current pledged delegate count.
Obama- 1378 + 289= 1667
Clinton- 1223 + 310= 1533
In other words, even under Last’s optimistic assumptions, Clinton would enter the convention with a deficit of 134 pledged delegates not two dozen.
Clinton currently has a 242-210 advantage in pledged superdelegates. If we plug those numbers in, Obama still has an advantage of 102 delegates.
Is it too much to ask journalists to do a little homework before they spew forth their bullshit?
