Another interesting test of the fallout over the 2002 vote on granting Authorization to Use Military Force in Iraq is to look at how soon we’ll be rid of all, or nearly all, the Republicans that voted ‘aye’. Here’s some thoughts on the matter.
Wayne Allard (R-CO)- Allard is retiring in 2009 and it looks likely that Democratic Rep. Mark Udall will take over his seat.
George Allen (R-VA)- Allen was defeated by Jim Webb in 2006.
Bob Bennett (R-UT)- Bennett will be 77 years old in 2010 when he next faces reelection. It’s possible that he will retire at that time.
Kit Bond (R-MO)- Bond will face a top flight Democratic challenger in 2010 from Missouri’s deep bench of Democratic contenders. Without question, this will be a competitive race.
Sam Brownback (R-KS)- Brownback has already announced his retirement in 2011.
Jim Bunning (R-KY)- Bunning is widely assumed to be retiring in 2011. It’s even more widely assumed that he would lose any effort to get reelected. Look for Rep. Ben Chandler to take over this seat.
Conrad Burns (R-MT)- Burns was defeated by Jon Tester in 2006.
Ben ‘Nighthorse’ Campbell (R-CO)- retired in 2004. Was replaced by Democrat Ken Salazar.
Thad Cochran (R-MS)- Cochran defied expectations by deciding to run for reelection in 2008. He is a heavy favorite.
Susan Collins (R-ME)- Collins is still popular but she faces a stiff challenge in 2008 from Rep. Tom Allen.
Larry Craig (R-ID)- Craig is retiring in 2009. GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is heavily favored to be his replacement but Larry LaRocco is running an energetic campaign and could yet pull off an upset.
Mike Crapo (R-ID)- Crapo is up for reelection in 2010 but there are no credible challengers on the horizon.
Mike DeWine (R-OH)- DeWine was defeated in 2006 by Rep. Sherrod Brown, an opponent of the war in Iraq.
Pete Domenici (R-NM)- Domenici is retiring in 2009 and his endorsed replacement, Rep. Heather Wilson, lost her primary bid.
John Ensign (R-NV)- Ensign is not up for reelection until 2012, but is currently presiding over perhaps the most disastrous Senate campaign in modern GOP history.
Mike Enzi (R-WY)- Enzi is a safe-bet to win reelection in 2008.
Mike Fitzgerald (R-IL)- retired in 2004 and was replaced by Barack Obama.
Bill Frist (R-TN)- retired in 2007.
Phil Gramm (R-TX)- retired in December 2002.
Chuck Grassley (R-IA)- Grassley is up for reelection in 2010 when he will be 77 years old. It’s very likely that Grassley will retire.
Judd Gregg (R-NH)- Gregg is up for reelection in 2010 in an increasingly Democratic state. He will face a stiff challenge.
Chuck Hagel (R-NE)- Hagel is retiring in 2009 and may endorse Barack Obama and become a member of his cabinet.
Orrin Hatch (R-UT)- Hatch is not up for reelection until 2012 when he will be 78 years old.
Jesse Helms (R-NC)- Helms did not seek reelection in 2002.
Tim Hutchinson (R-AR)- Hutchison was defeated in 2002 by Mark Pryor.
Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)- Hutchison could become McCain’s running mate. If not, she is widely expected to run for governor of Texas in 2010.
Jim Inhofe (R-OK)- Inhofe is facing a spirited challenge in 2008 from state Sen. Andrew Rice. The race could become competitive.
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)- Kyl is not up for reelection until 2012.
Trent Lott (R-MS)- Lott retired in 2007.
Dick Lugar (R-IN)- Lugar is not up for reelection until 2012 when he will be 80 years old.
John McCain (R-AZ)- McCain is unlikely to return to the Senate after his defeat this November.
Mitch McConnell (R-KY)- McConnell is facing a strong challenge in 2008 from Bruce Lunsford.
Frank Murkowski (R-AK)- Murkowski resigned in Dec. 2002 to prepare to take over as Governor of Alaska.
Don Nickles (R-OK)- Nickles retired in 2005.
Pat Roberts (R-KS)- Roberts is in a fight for his political life in 2008 against former Rep. Jim Slattery.
Rick Santorum (R-PA)- Santorum was totally destroyed by Bob Casey Jr. in his 2006 reelection bid.
Jeff Sessions (R-AL)- Sessions is heavily favored to win reelection in 2008.
Richard Shelby (R-AL)- Shelby is not up for reelection until 2010 when he will be 76 years old.
Bob Smith (R-NH)- Smith was defeated in a 2002 Republican primary by John Sununu.
Gordon Smith (R-OR)- Smith is in a fight for his political life against Oregon Speaker of the House, Jeff Merkley.
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)- Snowe isn’t up for reelection until 2012 when she will be 65 years old.
Arlen Specter (R-PA)- Specter says he will run for reelection in 2010. But Specter has been battling recurring cancer and will face a deep bench of Democratic opposition.
Ted Stevens (R-AK)- Stevens is behind in the polls to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in his 2008 reelection bid.
Craig Thomas (R-WY)- Thomas is deceased.
Fred Thompson (R-TN)- Thompson retired in 2003.
Strom Thurmond (R-SC)- Thurmond is deceased.
George Voinovich (R-OH)- Voinovich is up for reelection in 2010 and will face stiff opposition from a deep bench of Ohio Democrats.
John Warner (R-VA)- Warner is retiring in 2009.
When 2013 rolls around it is not unrealistic to think that the pro-war Republicans will be decimated down to the following rump:
- Thad Cochran (R-MS)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Mike Enzi (R-WY)
Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Jeff Sessions (R-AL)
Olympia Snowe (R-ME)
I can live with that. The real question is what kind of Republicans will replace the crop that failed the nation so miserably?
