This year we have a decent chance of electing Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire to replace John Sununu, and Kay Hagan of North Carolina to replace Elizabeth Dole. That would only be a pickup of one net woman in the Senate, but it would be a pickup of two for the Democratic caucus.
In 2010, there will be thirty-three senators up for reelection. And there is a real possibility that the Democrats will be in a position to add as many as eight new female senators. If Barack Obama wins the presidency, his senate seat will be filled by Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Two top prospects are Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth and Chicago-area Rep. Jan Schakowsky. Either one of them would face reelection to a full six-year term in 2010.
Governors Janet Napolitano and Kathleen Sebelius will be frontrunners to win their nominations. Napolitano would be looking to fill John McCain’s (probably open) seat. Kathleen Sebelius would be looking to fill Sam Brownback’s (probably open) seat.
In Connecticut the rumor is that Chris Dodd will not seek reelection. If true, Rep. Rosa DeLauro would have a good chance of winning the nomination. She’ll be 67 years old in 2010, so age could be a factor. But she’s the longest serving member of the congressional delegation, and she would have a good claim on the seat.
I expect Sen. Daniel Inouye of Hawaii to retire, opening up the possibility that freshman Rep. Mazie Hirino will fill his spot.
In Florida we could see Debbie Wasserman Schultz use her positions as Dem. Chief Deputy Whip and co-chair of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program to gain the nomination to take on unpopular Sen. Mel Martinez.
New Hampshire Republican Judd Gregg will probably seek reelection. One possible competitor is freshman Rep. Carol Shea-Porter.
Finally, I don’t know if Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter will seek reelection or not. But I do know that Rep. Allyson Schwartz will be a formidable candidate if she chooses to challenge for the nomination to take over his seat.
Currently, only 16% of senators are women.
1. Sen. Boxer, Barbara (D-CA)
2. Sen. Cantwell, Maria (D-WA)
3. Sen. Clinton, Hillary (D-NY)
4. Sen. Collins, Susan (R-ME)
5. Sen. Dole, Elizabeth (R-NC)
6. Sen. Feinstein, Dianne (D-CA)
7. Sen. Hutchison, Kay Bailey (R-TX)
8. Sen. Klobuchar, Amy (D-MN)
9. Sen. Landrieu, Mary (D-LA)
10. Sen. Lincoln, Blanche (D-AR)
11. Sen. McCaskill, Claire (D-MO)
12. Sen. Mikulski, Barbara (D-MD)
13. Sen. Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK)
14. Sen. Murray, Patty (D-WA)
15. Sen. Snowe, Olympia (R-ME)
16. Sen. Stabenow, Debbie (D-MI)
Yet, if we were to win all of the races discussed above, that number would skyrocket to twenty-five percent. In the Democratic caucus, women would probably be at least a third of the caucus.
That would be nice to see.
