I’m one of those people that doesn’t put a lot faith in the ability of debates to have much impact on the outcome of presidential elections. Most debates are remembered for whatever gaffes are committed, not for whomever scored more debating points. Oftentimes it seems that the American people punish the candidate that appears to have a better grasp of the facts. A candidate can come across as condescending…the smartest kid in class…and the really persuadable voters are not the type that give points for wonkishness.
Having said that, the vice-presidential debate is unusual this year because Sarah Palin is a relative unknown. She’s a bit like Dan Quayle in 1988 (you’re no Jack Kennedy) or Admiral Stockdale in 1992 (who am I, why am I here). She runs the risk of being negatively defined by a poor debate performance. For this reason, the McCain campaign has intervened with the Presidential Debate Commission to change the rules:
The Obama and McCain campaigns have agreed to an unusual free-flowing format for the three televised presidential debates, which begin Friday, but the McCain camp fought for and won a much more structured approach for the questioning at the vice-presidential debate, advisers to both campaigns said Saturday.
At the insistence of the McCain campaign, the Oct. 2 debate between the Republican nominee for vice president, Gov. Sarah Palin, and her Democratic rival, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., will have shorter question-and-answer segments than those for the presidential nominees, the advisers said. There will also be much less opportunity for free-wheeling, direct exchanges between the running mates.
Here’s a little more detail:
A commission member said that the new agreement on the vice-presidential debate was reached late Saturday morning. It calls for shorter blocks of candidate statements and open discussion than at the presidential debates.
McCain advisers said they were only somewhat concerned about Ms. Palin’s debating skills compared with those of Mr. Biden, who has served six terms in the Senate, or about his chances of tripping her up. Instead, they say, they wanted Ms. Palin to have opportunities to present Mr. McCain’s positions, rather than spending time talking about her experience or playing defense.
As best as I can parse this, it means that there will be more questions but less time to respond to them. This, from the McCain campaign’s point of view, will allow Palin to spew out some talking point about McCain’s policy position on the issue at hand without necessitating that she articulate her own views. It will also limit the time for interchange between the candidates and for follow-up questions.
I’m not sure why the Obama/Biden campaign agreed to the changes, but they can’t complain too much. There will be three presidential debates. The first, next Friday in Oxford, Mississippi, will deal with foreign affairs. McCain would much rather talk about foreign affairs than domestic policy or the economy. Obama wanted the foreign affairs debate first both because it allows him to establish bona fides early and because he would rather finish off with the last debate dealing with economic and domestic policy. The original schedule was flipped, with foreign policy coming last, but Obama successfully negotiated for this sequence. I think it favors him.
The middle debate will be ‘town-hall’ style. McCain made great use of the town-hall forum in his 2000 presidential run. But eight years of aging have taken a significant toll on McCain’s energy level and his mental acuity, and it has shown in his lackluster performances in town-halls all year long. McCain at least feels comfortable with the format, and that’s important.
It looks like Obama’s strategy may be to see if can make McCain lose his temper.
Mr. Obama plans to begin debate camp on Tuesday with a tight circle of advisers at a site in the Tampa Bay area of Florida, his aides say, with a prominent Democratic lawyer, Greg Craig, playing the part of Mr. McCain in mock debates.
The Obama campaign has been studying Mr. McCain’s debate performances from the Republican primary as well as in his 2000 race for president. Each debate has been rated and scored, with briefing points and highlights sent to Mr. Obama.
Mr. Obama’s advisers have been studying in particular Mr. McCain’s temperament and mood and looking for potential flash points of anger.
That’s good. Go for the ‘You kids, get off my lawn’ moment. Part of winning the debates is winning the expectations game. You praise your opponent’s debating skills and say that your side only hopes to keep it even. I don’t play those games. Biden will win the debate with Palin on points and Obama will win the debates with McCain on points. None of that is very important. Who will make a gaffe? Who will be more likeable? Which zinger will get replayed on television for the next 48 hours? If you know the answer to those questions, you know who will benefit from the debates.
Aside from the very real possibility that Palin will fall on her face, or that John McCain will forget that Germany is in Europe, I don’t see these debates mattering much to the final outcome. And Biden is always capable of saying something stupid. It’s what makes him endearing. And he probably has some preexisting antibodies built up to inoculate him from the impact of a dumb statement.
