Last week, Stan Greenberg and James Carville released some polling data and issued a warning to the Washington Elite.
Mr. Carville, who managed Mr. Clinton’s 1992 election campaign, said, “what you should do before you vote Tuesday morning is kind of look around and try to record in your mind what everything here looks like. Because Wednesday, it ain’t going to look like that…. There is basically going to be nothing left standing.”
In some ways, that’s true even before we have a vote. Take a look at the Republican members of the powerful tax-writing Ways & Means Committee. Do you see how many of them decided to retire once they found themselves in the minority?
Rep. Jim McCrery (REP-LA-4th)– retired
Rep. Wally Herger (REP-CA-2nd)
Rep. Dave Camp (REP-MI-4th)
Rep. Jim Ramstad (REP-MN-3rd)– retired
Rep. Sam Johnson (REP-TX-3rd)
Rep. Philip English (REP-PA-3rd)– behind in the polls
Rep. Jerry Weller (REP-IL-11th)– retired
Rep. Kenny Hulshof (REP-MO-9th)– ran for Governor
Rep. Ron Lewis (REP-KY-2nd)– retired
Rep. Kevin Brady (REP-TX-8th)
Rep. Thomas Reynolds (REP-NY-26th)– retired
Rep. Paul Ryan (REP-WI-1st)
Rep. Eric Cantor (REP-VA-7th)
Rep. John Linder (REP-GA-7th)
Rep. Devin Nunes (REP-CA-21st)
Rep. Patrick Tiberi (REP-OH-12th)
Rep. Jon Porter (REP-NV-3rd)– behind in the polls
It’s obvious that, regardless of what happens next Tuesday, that committee won’t look the same next year. Let me give a different example. Look at the Homeland Security Committee. No Republican on this committee is a sure loser (except Danny David Davis, who already lost his primary). But, in a major wave election, this committee could be decimated.
Rep. Peter King (REP-NY-3rd)
Rep. Lamar Smith (REP-TX-21st)
Rep. Christopher Shays (REP-CT-4th)– in a tight race
Rep. Mark Souder (REP-IN-3rd)– in a tight race
Rep. Thomas Davis (REP-VA-11th)– retired
Rep. Dan Lungren (REP-CA-3rd)– in a tight race
Rep. Michael Rogers (REP-AL-3rd)
Rep. Dave Reichert (REP-WA-8th)– in a tight race
Rep. Michael McCaul (REP-TX-10th)– in a tight race
Rep. Charles Dent (REP-PA-15th)– in a tight race
Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (REP-FL-5th)
Rep. Gus Bilirakis (REP-FL-9th)– in a competitive race
Rep. David Davis (REP-TN-1st)– defeated in primary
Rep. Paul Broun (REP-GA-10th)
Rep. Candice Miller (REP-MI-10th)
I could do this for any number of committees and the results would be similar. When Carville says that nothing will look the same, this is what he’s talking about.
