I’ve broken out my congressional forecast into five categories (or waves). And I have also separated the races out by region. I expect that candidates in WAVE ONE will win (90+ percent confidence). Candidates in WAVE TWO are pure toss-ups. I expect to win 40%-60% of these races. Candidates in WAVE THREE are showning weakness in the polls, but have other factors (like DCCC money, favorable districts, or Obama’s groundgame) that could get them over the top. As of right now, I only expect about 30% of them to win. Candidates in the WAVE FOUR category are likely to lose due to either to lack of money, the strengths of the opponent, or the redness of their districts. The WAVE FOUR category is dominated by overperforming Democrats, who have raised a lot of money and/or run brilliant campaigns. I expect that at least 10% of them will pull out shocking upsets. I have added a WAVE FIVE category in this final analysis. Candidates in the fifth wave are barely showing a pulse, but cannot be ruled out. Some of the late polling in the presidential race is indicating a true historical landslide. Should that really come to pass, some WAVE FIVE candidates will surely be swept along. I give each of them about a 5% chance of winning. There will be more analysis at the bottom.
NORTHEAST (ME, VT, NY, MD, PA, CT, DE, MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ)
WAVE ONE- CT04- Jim Himes
WAVE ONE- NY13- Mike McMahon
WAVE ONE- NY25- Dan Maffei
WAVE ONE- NY29- Eric Massa
WAVE ONE- NJ03- John Adler
WAVE ONE- NJ07- Linda Stender
WAVE ONE- PA03- Kathy Dahlkemper
WAVE TWO- NJ05- Dennis Shulman
WAVE TWO- MD01- Frank Kratovil
WAVE THREE- NY26- Alice Kryzan
WAVE THREE- WV02- Anne Barth
WAVE FOUR- NJ04- Josh Zeitz
WAVE FOUR- PA15- Sam Bennett
WAVE FIVE- PA06- Bob Roggio
WAVE FIVE- PA18- Steve O’Donnell
MIDWEST
(IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, TX, NE, CO)
WAVE ONE- OH01- Steve Driehaus
WAVE ONE- OH15- Mary Jo Kilroy
WAVE ONE- OH16- John Boccieri
WAVE ONE- MI07- Mark Schauer
WAVE ONE- MI09- Gary Peters
WAVE ONE- IL10- Dan Seals
WAVE ONE- IL11- Debbie Halvorson
WAVE ONE- MN06- El Tinklenberg
WAVE ONE- CO04- Betsy Markey
WAVE TWO- OH02- Vic Wulsin
WAVE TWO- IN13- Mike Montagano
WAVE TWO- IA04- Becky Greenwald
WAVE TWO- MN03- Ashwin Madia
WAVE TWO- MO09- Judy Baker
WAVE TWO- NE02- Jim Esch
WAVE THREE- OH03- Jane Mitakides
WAVE THREE- OH07- Sharon Neuhardt
WAVE THREE- IL13- Scott Harper
WAVE THREE- MN02- Steve Sarvi
WAVE THREE- MO06- Kay Barnes
WAVE FOUR- IA05- Ron Hubler
WAVE FOUR- TX07- Michael Skelly
WAVE FOUR- TX10- Larry Joe Doherty
WAVE FIVE- IN04- Nels Ackerson
WAVE FIVE- IN06- Barry Welsh
WAVE FIVE- IL06- Jill Morganthaler
WAVE FIVE- IL18- Colleen Callahan
WAVE FIVE- OK01- Georgianna Oliver
SOUTH
(FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR)
WAVE ONE- VA11- Gerry Connelly
WAVE ONE- NC08- Larry Kissell
WAVE ONE- FL08- Alan Grayson
WAVE ONE- FL24- Suzanne Kosmas
WAVE TWO- FL21- Raul Martinez
WAVE TWO- FL25- Joe Garcia
WAVE TWO- AL02- Bobby Bright
WAVE THREE- VA02- Glenn Nye
WAVE THREE- VA10- Judy Feder
WAVE THREE- KY02- David Boswell
WAVE THREE- FL18- Annette Taddeo
WAVE FOUR- VA05- Tom Perriello
WAVE FOUR- NC10- Dan Johnson
WAVE FOUR- SC01- Linda Ketner
WAVE FOUR- SC02- Rob Miller
WAVE FOUR- FL09- Bill Mitchell
WAVE FOUR- FL13- Christine Jennings
WAVE FOUR- FL15- Steve Blythe
WAVE FOUR- LA04- Paul Carmouche
WAVE FIVE- NC05- Roy Carter
WAVE FIVE- LA01- Jim Harlan
WAVE FIVE- LA07- Don Cravins
WEST
(NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY)
WAVE ONE- NM01- Martin Heinrich
WAVE ONE- NM03- Harry Teague
WAVE ONE- NV03- Dana Titus
WAVE ONE- AZ01- Ann Kirkpatrick
WAVE ONE- CA04- Charlie Brown
WAVE ONE- ID01- Walt Minnick
WAVE ONE- WA08- Darcy Burner
WAVE ONE- AKAL- Ethan Berkowitz
WAVE TWO- WYAL- Gary Trauner
WAVE TWO- NV03- Jill Derby
WAVE TWO- AZ03- Bob Lord
WAVE THREE- CA50- Nick Liebham
WAVE FOUR- CA03- Bill Durston
WAVE FOUR- CA46- Debbie Cook
WAVE FIVE- CA26- Russ Warner
WAVE FIVE- CA41- Tim Prince
WAVE FIVE- CA45- Julie Bornstein
WAVE FIVE- CA52- Mike Lumpkin
Analysis: There are 28 candidates in the WAVE ONE category. I currently project that the Democrats will lose three seats (PA11- Paul Kanjorski, FL16- Tim Mahoney, TX22- Nick Lampson). For the purposes of my predictions, I project the Dems will win:
WAVE ONE (90%*28 seats)= 25 seats
WAVE TWO (50%*14 seats)= 7 seats
WAVE THREE (30%*12 seats)= 4 seats
WAVE FOUR (10%*15 seats)= 2 seats
WAVE FIVE (5%*14 seats)= 1 seat
TOTAL PICKUPS= 39 seats
TOTAL LOSSES= 3 seats
NET PICKUPS= 36 seats
CURRENT CONGRESS= 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans
NEXT CONGRESS= 272 Democrats, 163 Republicans
