Personally, I wouldn’t even consider appointing Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) to be Secretary of Commerce unless I was assured that Governor John Lynch (D-NH) was going to appoint a Democrat to replace him. In fact, getting that sixtieth senator would be the sole reason I would consider appointing another Republican to head a major department of the federal government. However, there are other benefits and potential benefits that could accrue to the Obama administration by appointing Gregg.
Removing Gregg from the Republican caucus weakens that caucus because Gregg is a very important figure within the caucus structure. He is the ranking member and former chairman of the Budget Committee, and he is one of the few bright minds the Republicans have on understanding how the federal bureaucracy actually works. By lines of seniority, it’s most likely that Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama would replace Gregg as Ranking Member on the Budget Committee, and Sen. Sessions might be the stupidest person currently serving in Congress. Sen. Sessions simply doesn’t have the brain power to go toe-to-toe with Budget chairman Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota. Of course, the Republicans are under no obligation to promote Sessions, so this benefit might not materialize.
If Governor John Lynch appoints a Republican to replace Gregg, there could still be some benefits. A Republican that committed not to seek election in 2010 would leave Gregg’s seat open, and therefore much more vulnerable to Democratic takeover. Additionally, other concessions could be part of any deal, including a commitment to allow an up or down vote on the Employee Free Choice Act or other key legislation that is likely to be contentious in the 111th Congress. It’s hard to tell what kind of deals might be going on behind the scenes.
Because I don’t know what is going on in the backrooms, I cannot really judge the intelligence of the appointment of Gregg to Commerce. What I do know is that it would be stupid to appoint Gregg if there is nothing of considerable value to be gained in return. I don’t think it is enough to get credit for bipartisanship, and I don’t think the Obama administration is stupid. So, my guess is that is something valuable will be won if Gregg is appointed, as it now seems he will be. The Republicans are being very aggressive about suggesting that Gregg has guaranteed them that he won’t accept the appointment unless Gov. Lynch appoints someone as a replacement that will caucus with the Republicans. I haven’t seen Gregg confirm that. I also don’t think that that is the end of it. As I’ve said, it’s possible to appoint someone that will caucus with the GOP but that won’t back them up on key votes. In particular, a Republican that won’t back them up on filibusters is not of much use to them.
We shall see.
