The ultra-conservative senator Jim DeMint broke the news to Arlen Specter last Thursday.
Last Thursday night on the Senate floor, Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., told Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter, then still a Republican, that DeMint would be supporting Specter’s rival, former Rep. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., in next year’s Senate Republican primary. DeMint says Specter “pretty much cut me off and said, ‘I’ve heard enough.’”
Sen. DeMint explained himself today.
“I would rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who really believe in principles of limited government, free markets, free people, than to have 60 that don’t have a set of beliefs.”
I want to explain how DeMint might succeed in getting his wish.
With Arlen Specter and Al Franken, the Democrats now how have 58 votes plus the two Independents, Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, in their caucus. The Republicans are stuck at forty members. How could the Republicans lose ten more seats in 2010?
Start with the fact that five Republicans have already announced that they are retiring: Sam Brownback of Kansas, Mel Martinez of Florida, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, George Voinovich of Ohio, and Kit Bond of Missouri. Kansas will probably remain in Republican hands, but the others could easily fall to the Democrats. The situation in Florida is highly dependent on whether or not Governor Crist decides to run for for Martinez’s seat or go for another term in the Statehouse. Let’s be optimistic and assume the Democrats pick up four of these five seats.
Then we need to talk about other potential retirements. There is a lot of speculation that Chuck Grassley of Iowa and Tom Coburn of Oklahoma might call it quits. If they do, the Democrats have solid candidates to run in both states. Let’s assume they the pick up these two seats as well. That puts us at a six-seat pickup.
Incumbents Richard Burr of North Carolina and Jim Bunning of Kentucky are extremely vulnerable. Their seats could bring us to a pickup of eight.
David Vitter is running for reelection on a platform of being most famous for procuring hookers for himself instead of federal aid for his state. That seat could make nine.
To get to ten, the Democrats would have to field a strong candidate to run against either Johnny Isakson of Georgia or Jim DeMint of South Carolina.
There are also long-shot opportunities if John McCain of Arizona or Bob Bennett of Utah get fed up with their own right-wing primary challengers and call it quits.
The only really safe Republicans appear to be Lisa Murkowski of Alaska (assuming Sarah Palin makes no trouble), Mike Crapo of Idaho, and Richard Shelby of Alabama (a former Democrat).
I’m not suggesting that DeMint will get his wish, but it seems a whole lot more likely today than it seemed yesterday.
