It’s a legitimate question to ask whether there is any possibility that the Republican Party will crack-up and go the way of the Whig Party. I think it is possible, but not very likely. The Whig Party fell apart in 1854 over two issues. The first should be somewhat familiar: immigration. The huge influx of (mainly) Irish Catholics led to a political backlash among protestants. This led anti-Catholic xenophobes to form a surreptitious political movement known as the Know-Nothings. Some Know-Nothings won office as Democrats and some as Whigs, but they took most of their support away from the Whig Party. I could easily see a repeat of this schism in the modern-day Republican Party over the issue of Latino immigration. The national party will have to pivot away from their nativist base on immigration policy and this could lead to a formal or informal nativist political party/movement arising in response. Such a movement could no more destroy the Republican Party than the Know-Nothings destroyed the Whig Party, but it could make a similar contribution. As a general matter, the Republicans would be more attractive to swing-voters and minorities without their nativists. But they make up enough of their current base that significant defections could significantly weaken the GOP’s viability as a major party.
To kill the Republicans off for good, though, there must me another party (not a mere movement) to replace them. In 1854, widespread opposition to the Kansas-Nebraska Act provided the impetus for a new political party (the GOP) which quickly replaced the Whigs as the second party in our essentially two-party system.
Even though the Republicans are a severely weakened major party (and are likely to grow weaker in 2010), I don’t see a compelling issue comparable to the Kansas-Nebraska Act that could give rise to a new party. There are significant barriers to entry for third-parties, including ballot access laws, lack of financing, and lack of organizational infrastructure. There are very powerful incentives for moderate conservatives to remain in the party and try to work from within. This is the calculation progressives have made with the Democratic Party, with some considerable success.
What could cause irreconcilable differences within the GOP?
I think the Republicans have a decent chance to win back the governor’s mansions soon in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Virginia, and (perhaps) New York. Those kind of victories could spell the beginning of the end of the Republicans’ demise. Perhaps they can win Senate races in New Hampshire and Connecticut and Delaware in 2010. It could be that the power will swing back towards the GOP in an organic manner. But, it’s not out of the question that what little is left of the GOP base will fracture over immigration and social issues.
What do you think?
