The Hill tries to game out the next steps in the Senate, but doesn’t really come up with any definitive conclusions.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), once in polite disagreement over the idea of a public option component in healthcare legislation, are approaching a breaking point over the issue.
Reid and Baucus have staked out opposing positions on the central question of a government role in health reform — Reid has consistently stood in favor, but Baucus has consistently said the idea doesn’t have enough Senate support.
Instead, Baucus has inserted insurance co-operatives into the bill that is scheduled for a final vote on Tuesday.
Now, let me ask you this question. The co-operatives…how many votes are there for the co-operatives as a stand-alone measure? We know Kent Conrad is in love with the idea. Max Baucus put the measure in his bill as a way to attract the support of skeptics on his committee like Blanche Lincoln, Tom Carper, and Bill Nelson. But Carper and Nelson voted for Schumer’s version of the public option. Even in Baucus’s case, he originally included a public option in his bill before he realized that he couldn’t pass it through the committee. So, we know that there are really only two votes on the Finance Committee in favor of the co-ops. The White House has never signaled any enthusiasm for co-ops. Harry Reid has remained steadfast in his support of a public option, even as he has played around with the idea of using a trigger mechanism.
It’s a good bet that senators like Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Evan Bayh prefer co-ops to a public option. But, I can’t think of too many senators beyond them. So, the co-ops have the support of about five or six senators. They don’t seem to have any constituency in the House. Could they prevail with such lukewarm support? Will the threat of a Democratic-aided filibuster make Harry Reid adopt the Finance bill as the base bill? I don’t think so.
On the other hand, I don’t think he can just throw the Finance bill away and use the HELP bill. If he’s going to include HELP’s public option, he’s going to have to compromise in other areas. I don’t think any members of the Democratic caucus want to filibuster, even though a few are threatening to do so as a negotiating ploy. They need to be able to hold something up as a concession they have won in return for their vote for cloture. It may be that Labor has to take one on the chin and see their Cadillac health care plans get taxed. It may be that the public option will not have its reimbursement rates tied to Medicare. Perhaps the fees on medical device manufacturers will have to be lowered or dropped. I can’t predict right now which concessions will be made. I do predict, however, that this fellow is wrong:
A Democratic Senate source downplayed any differences, saying that Reid, Baucus and Harkin cooperate well but that the Finance Committee bill is the only legislation that can pass the Senate.
“President Obama clearly articulated his blueprint in his speech, and everyone knows Finance has the bulk of the bill that reflects that blueprint,” the source said. “Everyone, including the White House, knows the Finance bill is the only bill that’s paid for and can pass. In short, the White House wants a win, and using the bulk of the Baucus bill is the playbook to get the ‘W.’ “
I don’t think the Finance bill is popular with more than five or six senators. I don’t think it can pass the Senate, and it’s even less likely to pass the House. Unless the Republicans are willing to join with the five or six Democratic senators, I don’t see it having any chance.
I could be wrong, but I suspect Reid is going to make that Democratic senate source play a game of chicken. Who will leap out of the way first?
