Roll Call reports:
Unable to mount a filibuster on their own and calculating that Democrats are on track to send a health care bill to Obama by year’s end, Senate Republicans figure the only way to stop or reshape the measure is to give the public enough time to figure out what’s in it and what they don’t like about it.
Doing that is going to take some time, and the process of amending bills during a floor debate — which can include demanding a 60-vote threshold for all amendments — could provide the minority ample opportunity to slow things down. Republicans could also benefit from some built-in delays, including the fact that Democratic leaders have said they’d like to wait for a Congressional Budget Office cost estimate on the bill before beginning debate.
This process could repeat itself when the chamber prepares to consider the final House-Senate conference report. Earlier in the year, Republicans were hoping that Democratic divisions would do to Obama’s health care agenda what the GOP can’t, but they no longer expect moderate Democrats to stand in the way of passage — even one that includes a public insurance option.
“The votes are the reality, so the only way you win this thing if you’re in our camp is if the American people are completely on your side,” a senior Republican Senate aide said. “To have a positive outcome and get back to doing what we think is good for our health care system, we need to have the American people understand this thing.”
The truth is, the Republicans appear to have thirty-eight rock solid votes against cloture on the health care reform and on any amendments that they don’t like. Olympia Snowe appears willing to give her vote for cloture if certain conditions are met. Susan Collins is making some of the same noises. But, honestly, their positions are not to the left of any of the Democratic senators. I don’t see either Snowe or Collins making the 60th vote, but the 61st or 62nd.
Perhaps their votes might prove decisive on an amendment or two, but their votes on final passage appear superfluous. It would be desirable, I guess, to be able to say that the bill has a couple of Republican votes, but not at the cost of watering it down needlessly.
This Roll Call article focuses on the Republican’s strategy of delay and fear-mongering, but it also reveals another strategy. They are arguing that the president has the votes for a public option in order to put pressure on the Democratic caucus. I’d like to believe that the Republicans are right, but I see no signs of it yet. All signs point to an administration that is acting like they don’t have 60 votes.
I think the real question is not whether or not Obama has 60 votes now, but whether he will have them in the end. Will any member of the Democratic caucus in the Senate be willing to cast the deciding vote against cloture that denies the president an up-or-down vote on the Conference Report? My guess is ‘no,’ there will not be any Democrats who will take responsibility for killing reform. But, until we get to that point, there are senators who are looking to win concessions for their states and their interests (and their campaign contributors). So, the dance will continue.
The Senate will seek to pass a strong bill, but will settle for something weaker if that will secure passage. The House is the place to look for capitulation. If the public option gets watered down in the House, that’s a sure sign that a few centrists in the Senate have successfully blackmailed the rest of the Caucus, the president, and the American people.
