.
(Politico Scorecard) – Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, in the district, calls an Owens victory “virtually assured” — and sends over this bit of analysis:
This is a geographically enormous district where the largest town is only 28,000 people and voters pride themselves on living in a land apart. The fierce out-of-district support that Hoffman generated from grassroots conservatives caused a backlash among many voters who felt as if outsiders were meddlesome and dismissive or ignorant of myriad local issues, ranging from saving Fort Drum to repairing the Champlain Bridge.
Second, probably the most overlooked by Washington, was that scores of competitive local races drove turnout in town after town across the district. The voters who showed up to vote for town council, county sheriff, or highway supervisor weren’t the energized base of Hoffman believers that pollsters saw. And they were less likely to identify Hoffman as the Republican-backed candidate for Congress, as Hoffman’s name was buried on Line D of the ballot and didn’t have a major party line.
Third, the results out of St. Lawrence and Jefferson counties (the latter of which voted for Owens after giving McCain a narrow margin last year) demonstrated that Dede Scozzafava’s base of supporters turned to Owens in sizeable numbers. These voters didn’t take kindly to Hoffman from the start of the race, and weren’t ready to pledge allegiance to a candidate who vociferously attacked their favorite daughter when she dropped out. It helped that the local paper, the Watertown Daily Times, embarked on a crusade against Hoffman late in the race.
Consider the Siena poll out this morning [Oct. 31], which has all sorts of useful cross-tabs. Scozzafava’s supporters in this poll:
— Have a favorable view of Barack Obama by a 64-31 margin.
— Have an unfavorable view of Hoffman 15-57.
— Have an unfavorable view of Democrat Bill Owens, 19-50.
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."
