While the Daily Caller takes a look at how the Tea Party might affect various Senate races, I’d like to look at a broader set of concerns related to how our midterm elections might shake things up in both major parties.
The big enchilada is obviously Majority Leader Harry Reid’s reelection campaign. If he loses, regardless of who he loses to, it will be a big story and it will in some ways serve as a mark against the legitimacy of what the Democrats have done over the first two years of Obama’s presidency. It will also set off a battle royale between Sens. Dick Durbin and Chuck Schumer to serve as leader of the Senate. Reid is currently trailing even little known Republican challengers, and he has an eleven-point RCP Average deficit against the front-runner, Sue Lowden. However, Lowden’s health care plan of bartering chickens in exchange for medical attention is bizarre enough to make you wonder if she can stand the spotlight of a high profile campaign. This is also a race where a Tea Party candidate(s) might split the anti-Reid vote, handing him a fortuitous victory.
Next in prominence is the contest in Florida where Marco Rubio has surged so strongly that he appears to have forced Gov. Charlie Crist out of the Republican Party altogether. Yet, just as Rubio seems to be on a smooth sail to the nomination (and piling up major endorsements), the IRS and FBI announced that they are investigating his abuse of party credit cards. Could the Tea Partiers have succeeded in denying Crist the nomination only to see their champion’s campaign implode? If so, and it’s still too early to tell, could this open the door to Crist winning as an independent? And would he then caucus with the Democrats? While some may see this as good news for Democrat Kendrick Meek, he needs the right to split their votes fairly evenly. A total implosion is not in his interests.
The next most compelling Senate race is probably in Kentucky where Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has endorsed Trey Grayson, while retiring Sen. Jim Bunning has endorsed the anti-choice libertarian-running-as-a-Republican, Rand Paul. Establishment Republicans are so concerned about Rand Paul’s anti-imperial views that Dick Cheney and Rudy Guiliani have accused him of Blaming America First and having zero commitment to their endless humping of 9/11. Socially conservative Kentucky is not a likely candidate for a libertarian surge, but the polls favor Rand by a wide margin. The Democrats have a contested primary, too, between Attorney General Jack Conway and Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo. Conway appears to be the near-universal preference of progressives, but he remains narrowly behind in the polls.
Some question whether Rand Paul’s odd views can stand up to scrutiny over a long campaign. In this political environment, I believe they can, and will. And if he behaves in the Senate like his father Ron does in the House, we’ll see obstruction on an epic level that disturbs the Republicans nearly as often as the Democrats. There’s not a serious committee that the Republicans will want see Paul serve on because he will not be a reliable vote on anything.
In all three of these races, there is an unusual amount of uncertainty, and how they play out will have profound affects on our national politics. What happens to Reid will drive perceptions about Obama’s agenda leading into primary season. If he survives because of a splintering of the right between the GOP and Tea Party candidates, it will be a source of much anger and recriminations on the right.
If Rubio flames out and Crist is elected and caucuses with the Democrats, the Tea Party will earn even more wrath from the Republican Establishment. If Rubio and Crist split the Republican vote and hand the seat to Kendrick Meek, we’ll have an African-American senator from Florida, reinforcing the message that the moment has arrived for blacks to win in statewide elections.
And, if Rand Paul beats out Mitch McConnell’s hand-picked candidate, it will make the Minority Leader look foolish. If Paul wins the seat, he’ll be a thorn in the side of Senate Democrats and Republicans alike. It could be the beginning of a libertarian boomlet in the Republican Party with very unpredictable consequences on matters of military spending, foreign policy, and financial and banking matters. If a Democrat wins in Kentucky (particularly over Rand Paul), it would amplify the perception that the Tea Party isn’t helping the Republican Party regain its former glory.
Stay tuned.
