It’s kind of important that we do well in this year’s Senate elections. To demonstrate why, let me fast forward to 2012. It will be a presidential election year and therefore senators running for reelection will benefit if their candidate wins their state. For example, Kristen Gillibrand (assuming she wins the special election this November) will be running for a full term in 2012. She’ll probably benefit from having Obama on the ballot. The same is true of senators like Roger Wicker of Mississippi and John Barrasso of Wyoming. They’ll benefit from having Obama on the ballot, too. With this in mind, here is a look at the senators up for reelection in 2012, and it isn’t pretty.
Akaka, Daniel K. – (D – HI)
Age on election day: 88
Prognosis: There is a very good chance that Sen. Akaka will retire. But, with Obama on the ballot, this should be a safe seat for the Democrats. We might be welcoming a Senator Mazie Hirono. If so, it will be a happy day.Barrasso, John – (R – WY)
Age on election day: 60
Prognosis: It would be hard for a Democrat to win this seat in a midterm. In a presidential year, it’s nearly impossible and the best candidate, Gov. Dave Freudenthal, won’t even try.Bingaman, Jeff – (D – NM)
Age on election day: 69
Prognosis: If he doesn’t retire, Bingaman should have little problem winning reelection. Even if he does retire, this seat should be safe in a presidential year.Brown, Scott P. – (R – MA)
Age on election day: 53
Prognosis: Sen. Brown has a certain appeal, but he’s unfortunate to have his reelection date fall on a presidential year. He should be swamped out of office on Obama’s coattails.Brown, Sherrod – (D – OH)
Age on election day: 60
Prognosis: Sen. Brown is a liberal running for reelection in a moderate swing state. His chances would be dicey in the best of times. If Obama cruises to reelection, so will Brown. If not, this could be a Republican pickup.Cantwell, Maria – (D – WA)
Age on election day: 54
Prognosis: I don’t see Cantwell as particularly vulnerable. She’s young and she’ll be well-financed and she’ll probably benefit from having Obama on the ballot.Cardin, Benjamin L. – (D – MD)
Age on election day: 69
Prognosis: With anyone over the age of 65 you have to consider a possible retirement but Cardin is only a freshman. Maryland should be a deep blue state in 2012 and there is no hint of scandal or problems with Cardin. This should be a hold.Carper, Thomas R. – (D – DE)
Age on election day: 65
Prognosis: Carper is untouchable and he’ll be ready to assume a chairmanship or leadership role soon. This is a hold.Casey, Robert P., Jr. – (D – PA)
Age on election day: 52
Prognosis: This is Casey’s seat for as long as he wants it. He may get a primary challenge, but it will go nowhere.Conrad, Kent – (D – ND)
Age on election day: 64
Prognosis: This is one seat that is unlikely to benefit from Obama’s coattails. On the other hand, it’s also a state that could fall into the Democrats’ hands if we have a Goldwater election in 2012. Conrad could follow his teammate Byron Dorgan into retirement. Everything will depend on how Obama is looking in his own reelection campaign. This is a potential Republican pickup.Corker, Bob – (R – TN)
Age on election day: 60
Prognosis: Corker is a politician on the rise and he’ll likely get some coattails from the Republican nominee. For now, this is a safe seat.Ensign, John – (R – NV)
Age on election day: 54
Prognosis: Ensign will probably not seek reelection and, if he does, he will not succeed in winning the GOP nomination. This seat will be a toss-up.Feinstein, Dianne – (D – CA)
Age on election day: 79
Prognosis: I expect that Feinstein will retire. The Democratic nominee will be helped by having Obama on the ballot, but nothing is assured.Gillibrand, Kirsten E. – (D – NY)
Age on election day: 45
Prognosis: Assuming she wins this year’s special election, she should breeze through in 2012.Hatch, Orrin G. – (R – UT)
Age on election day: 78
Prognosis: Sen. Hatch is guaranteed to get a tough primary challenge and I expect he will retire rather than face the same fate as his colleague Bob Bennett.Hutchison, Kay Bailey – (R – TX)
Age on election day: 69
Prognosis: Word is that Hutchison, having failed in gubernatorial bid, will seek reelection to the Senate. Some day the changing demographics of Texas will catch up with the Republicans, but 2012 is probably too soon. Hutchison will be very vulnerable to a primary challenge but the seat itself is probably safe for the GOP.Klobuchar, Amy – (D – MN)
Age on election day: 52
Prognosis: If Obama is competitive in his reelection campaign then Sen. Klobuchar should have nothing to worry about.Kohl, Herb – (D – WI)
Age on election day: 77
Prognosis: Herb Kohl will retire and Rep, Paul Ryan will run for this seat. This is definitely a major pickup opportunity for the GOP.Kyl, Jon – (R – AZ)
Age on election day: 70
Prognosis: This will probably be the Democrats’ best chance for picking up a seat in the 2012 senate elections. Arizona is trending Democratic and Jon Kyl is a prominent member of the GOP leadership. The Republicans will be lucky to hold Arizona for the Republican nominee and Kyl could become one of the first demographic casualties of the emerging Democratic majority.Lieberman, Joseph I. – (ID – CT)
Age on election day: 70
Prognosis: Joe Lieberman will not be reelected to the Senate. The odds favor a Democratic replacement.Lugar, Richard G. – (R – IN)
Age on election day: 80
Prognosis: Lugar is getting on in years and could conceivably retire. If he doesn’t, he probably won’t even receive a challenger. If he does, it is still an uphill climb for any potential Democratic candidate.McCaskill, Claire – (D – MO)
Age on election day: 59
Prognosis: Much like Sherrod Brown in Ohio, McCaskill’s fate will be tied to Obama’s. If Obama wins big, McCaskill will have nothing to worry about. If it’s close, she’s in big trouble. This is a definite potential pickup for the Republicans.Menendez, Robert – (D – NJ)
Age on election day: 58
Prognosis: Nothing is ever certain in New Jersey, but Menendez should probably be safe. If he isn’t, then we will have much bigger problems.Nelson, Ben – (D – NE)
Age on election day: 71
Prognosis: Sen. Nelson recently stated his intention to run for reelection. I do not see him winning, however. While he has a good track record of winning in Nebraska, I don’t think there are five people in that state who like him anymore. This is an almost certain pickup for the GOP.Nelson, Bill – (D – FL)
Age on election day: 70
Prognosis: One never knows with Florida. At this point, I have to consider this a potential pickup for the GOP.Sanders, Bernard – (I – VT)
Age on election day: 71
Prognosis: This seat is safe for as long as Bernie wants it.Snowe, Olympia J. – (R – ME)
Age on election day: 65
Prognosis: She’s still young and still unbeatable in a general election. Her risk is a primary challenge, but she should be able to weather all comers.Stabenow, Debbie – (D – MI)
Age on election day: 62
Prognosis: Like Ohio and Missouri, Michigan is a bellweather state. Stabenow will be in good shape if Obama is in good shape. Otherwise, there could be problems. I think she’ll be chairman of the Agriculture Committee for the next two years, and that may help her.Tester, Jon – (D – MT)
Age on election day: 56
Prognosis: Would you want to run as a Democrat in Montana in 2012? This is a major pickup opportunity for the Republicans.Webb, Jim – (D – VA)
Age on election day: 66
Prognosis: Having reached the age of 65, Sen. Webb may simply retire after serving one term in the Senate. I do not expect him to wage a campaign he expects to lose. So, again, this seat’s safety depends on Obama’s popularity.Whitehouse, Sheldon – (D – RI)
Age on election day: 57
Prognosis: Sen. Whitehouse is safe.Wicker, Roger F. – (R – MS)
Age on election day: 61
Prognosis: Sen. Wicker is extremely safe.
As you can see, this is a totally lopsided competition. While the seats held by Jon Kyl, Scott Brown, and John Ensign might be vulnerable, it’s a reach to find any other possibilities. But large numbers of Democrats will be vulnerable, In fact, nearly half of them should not consider their seats safe.
