Steve Benen thinks the Republicans, next year, are more likely than not to shut down the government like they did in 1995.
Likely Senate candidate Joe Miller (R) in Alaska told Fox News last week that GOP lawmakers must have the “courage to shut down the government” in order to eliminate government programs he doesn’t like. Right-wing CNN personality Erick Erickson said with child-like excitement yesterday, “I’m almost giddy thinking about a government shutdown next year. I cannot wait!”
And sleazy GOP consultant Dick Morris told activists late last week that Republicans should do exactly as Gingrich/Dole did 15 years ago, but this time it’ll work out better.
If the Republicans gain control of either house of Congress, it will be very unlikely that they will produce a budget that Obama is willing to sign. I just don’t see how Boehner or McConnell could persuade their freshmen to produce a reasonable budget. But it’s more likely that the Republicans will fall short of winning majorities. Even in that scenario, however, it’s unlikely that the Senate could produce the votes for a reasonable budget.
On the other hand, the Republicans know that they got burned the last time they couldn’t produce a budget that a Democratic president would sign, so they aren’t going to be eager to repeat that mistake.
The problem is, I don’t think the GOP has control of its base and it won’t have control of the freshman class, either. They probably will create another impasse that involves continuing resolutions to keep the government operating. Whether they will back down before or after the government actually shuts up shop is unknowable right now.
One thing that is different is that the 1995 freshman class had actual demands, like the elimination of the Commerce Department, that they were holding out for. This time, there is no single issue that unites the candidates. They don’t like bail-outs. Whoop-de-doo. Government is too big. Yeah…And?
What we’re looking at is basically a train-wreck. The only way to avoid it is to win a net senate seat and maintain control of the House. That’s a tall order, but the stakes are high.
