I’m surprised by Nate Silver’s analysis on the 2012 likely Republican nominee for president. I’m especially surprised by this part:
The other potential flaw in the analysis of candidates like Mr. Pawlenty and Mr. Thune is that some seem to think it an asset that they are bland and unobjectionable. In a primary election that isn’t an asset, but a liability. A primary election isn’t a reality show in which candidates are eliminated one at a time for failing some challenge. Instead, voters pick the one candidate whom they most like, rather than the one they most dislike; a candidate who has strong favorables and strong unfavorables is going to be more people’s first choice than one whom everyone feels indifferent about.
That analysis seems right, but all we have to do is go back to the 2004 primaries to see an obvious counterexample. John Kerry was certainly bland. Howard Dean was anything but. But Dean had two things working against him. First, the Establishment didn’t think he was electable. Second, the primary voters came to agree with the Establishment and denied Dean a victory in the first contest (the Iowa Caucuses).
It’s hard to see how any of the top four Republican candidates besides Mitt Romney will be able to hide rather glaring weaknesses with the general electorate. Palin has high unfavorables and a record of quitting. Mike Huckabee is too Southern and too socially conservative and too goofy to play well in the swing states. Newt Gingrich’s personal life and his ethical lapses make him a hard sell, even to Republicans. And, importantly, none of them can claim Establishment support. So, from the top four, Romney seems like the only one who will enter primary season with a good argument that he can win it all. The problem is RomneyCare, which was the precursor or prototype for ObamaCare that was signed into law in Massachusetts when Romney was serving as governor there.
Anyone who is listening to the rhetoric coming out of the Republican base right now knows that repealing ObamaCare is going to be the most debated topic of this next Congress. How can Romney hope to prosper is such an environment?
If we eliminate him from the conversation, I think we pretty quickly have to start looking down the bench to the next most electable contenders. And those would appear to be Thune and Pawlenty, who are ideally suited to win neighboring Iowa, and who can also make a credible claim to play well in the Upper Midwest, where the election will ultimately be decided.
It’s true that Thune and Pawlenty don’t bring the heat, but neither did Kerry.
