Chris Cillizza takes a look at the few strengths and many liabilities of the top ten Republican candidates for president. First, a list of those candidates: Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Newt Gingrich of Georgia, Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Sarah Palin of Alaska, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Mike Pence of Indiana, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Rick Santorum of Virginia Pennsylvania, and John Thune of South Dakota.
Let’s face it, this is a really pathetic list of candidates. But it is quite likely that one of them is going to be the Republican nominee who takes on President Obama in 2012. So, who will it be?
The most important thing in the race to be president is to win either/both the caucuses in Iowa or/and the primary in New Hampshire. If you can’t do that, then your chances diminish very quickly. So, let’s look at those two contests.
IOWA: Both John Thune and Tim Pawlenty come from states that border Iowa and that have a lot on common with Iowa both culturally and economically. While both candidates have very low name recognition nationally, they are better known in Iowa and it is easy and cheap for them to move their teams into place. They both have to consider Iowa a must-win. Short of winning, they’d need to beat expectations dramatically.
Another factor that is important is that Iowa’s registered Republicans are very socially conservative, and social conservatives tend to do very well there in the caucuses. Pat Robertson came in a strong second place in 1988. Pat Buchanan nearly beat Bob Dole in 1996. John McCain only won 5% in 2000 against George W. Bush and his favorite philosopher, Jesus Christ. And Mike Huckabee stomped the competition in 2008.
What this history tells me is that it is very likely that a favorite of the social conservatives will come in no worse than second, and has a good chance of winning. The only way a Mitch Daniels wins the Iowa caucuses is if the social conservatives can’t unify around a single champion. If Huckabee gets in the race, he’ll start off as that champion and he’ll be hoping to repeat his winning formula from 2008. But he could have some stiff competition from Man on Dog (aka, Rick Santorum) and Mike Pence of Indiana.
Competing with regional favorites and social conservative champions will be celebrity Sarah Palin. As I’ve said repeatedly, and Cillizza repeats, she doesn’t have what it takes:
Running a presidential campaign takes a lot of leadership, political know-how and qualified staff. Basically nobody in Republican politics thinks the former Alaska governor has any of the three
Forget running a presidential campaign. Does Palin have what it takes to make it to the first contest? Is she going to avoid talking to all the newspapers in Iowa? Is she going to skip all the chicken dinners? Is she going to hide from bigfoot reporters? Will she campaign in all 99 counties? I obviously have a low opinion of her work ethic, but the Quittah from Wasilla could surprise me. If she works hard enough and actually respects the Iowa voters enough to talk to them in every county and every format, then she has a chance to compete in the caucuses.
Whether Palin stands up all the way to the caucuses or wilts like Rudy Guiliani (who won a measly 4% of the votes in 2008) will determine the playing field for the Establishment’s candidate. The Establishment’s candidate will be either Mitt Romney or Mitch Daniels. Theoretically, Haley Barbour would be in the conversation, but it isn’t good optics to run a Boss Hogg-looking good old boy from Mississippi against a guy with Barack Obama’s complexion. And the Establishment knows this. They won’t do it.
Where does Newt Gingrich fit into this? He’s the comic act. He’ll try to be the only guy with the foreign policy chops to tackle the president. He’ll say eight insupportable things before lunch and try to dominate the headlines. But Iowa is isolationist and has a strong pacifist streak. Let me remind you that Guiliani could not compete in Iowa.
So, what do I think would happen if all these candidates competed in Iowa?
Pawlenty would try to tear down Thune for voting for TARP, while Thune would respond with his height, white teeth, and good looks. Neither of them would ever gain front-runner status, but they might strike a deal to have their voters throw their support to each other as a second-choice.
Huckabee would beat back the challenge from Pence and Santorum.
Barbour would get a serious look but without Establishment support, he would fade like Fred Thompson.
Romney would be severely damaged by attacks on ObamaCare, and Daniels would be eviscerated for his call for a “truce on family values.”
We’re assuming Palin actually defied my expectations and kept herself viable. In that case, I’d see her doing pretty well.
My guess is that Huckabee would win, Daniels would come in second, Palin third, and maybe Romney fourth.
This would probably end Pence, Thune, Santorum, and Barbour’s campaigns. Pawlenty might hang around, hoping to be more attractive to New Englanders.
NEW HAMPSHIRE:
It’s true that Pat Buchanan beat Bob Dole here in 1996. And John McCain thumped Dubya in 2000. So, New Hampshire knows how to be contrary. In 2010, Huckabee came in as the winner of the Iowa caucuses and left having come in third place, with a mere 11% of the vote. Huckabee shouldn’t expect a much better result the next time around. If Romney is going to be the nominee, he’s going to have to win in New Hampshire. But, having lost out to Daniels in Iowa, I see Romney finishing second to him in the 2012 primary. It’s possible that Pawlenty could climb to second, pushing Romney down to third. This would probably be the end of the line for Palin, who would do extremely badly among independents and Democrats crossing-over to vote in the more compelling Republican primary. Gingrich would probably soldier on, hoping that South Carolina would offer friendlier results.
SUMMARY:
Given this list of candidates, I’d expect the Iowa caucuses to cull Thune, Santorum, Barbour, and Pence. I’d expect the New Hampshire primary to cull Palin, Romney, and probably Pawlenty.
That would leave the other 48 states to decide between the nerdinesss of Mitch Daniels, the nutty folksiness of Mike Huckabee, and the giant ego of Newt Gingrich. The Establishment would push Daniels hard, but find that their help was not exactly helpful in most contests. In this scenario, I think Huckabee would probably win. And then he’d probably pick Romney to be his running mate.
