I want to do this as a useful exercise. We have 53 senators, but we’re going to have a devil of a time preventing the Republicans from taking over the Senate in 2013. Below I am listing all the Republicans who are going to be on the ballot in November 2012. As you can see, they are not many of them and (with one exception) they are not what we would ordinarily consider vulnerable members. If we are going to hold on to the Senate, we must recruit aggressively and not write these seats off. Playing defense will limit our losses, but it won’t prevent loss of control. We must win in Massachusetts and Nevada, and we need to find other places to win as well. Arizona is a good place to start, but we have to manufacture opportunities that don’t currently appear to be there.
Massachusetts- Scott Brown (R)- I don’t know who is going to emerge to take on Scott Brown, but they better win. The primary in Massachusetts should be a battleground for progressives who can seek an actual liberal to add to the Senate. They will probably have no more than one other opportunity to do so in 2012. That would be in the Connecticut primary for a candidate to take on Joe Lieberman.
Wyoming- John Barrasso (R)- There is only one person who can possibly take this seat away from Barrasso and that’s the man who appointed him to the seat. In Wyoming, the governor has to replace a departed senator with someone from the same party. That meant that the Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal had to choose a Republican to replace Sen. Craig Thomas when he died in 2007. Freudenthal was a very popular and successful two-term governor who would certainly be a conservative Democrat. It’s fair to say that he would be in the Ben Nelson mold, although I don’t think Freudenthal has the same weasily characteristics as Nelson. It would be hard for Freudenthal to win the seat, especially in a presidential election year when we should expect Obama to do rather poorly in Wyoming. But the truth is that Freudenthal is popular with and trusted by the voters. He was elected with under 50% of the vote in 2002, but reelected with just under 70% of the vote in 2006. He could definitely win the seat from Barrasso and we need to convince him to make the effort. He’s teaching law part-time at the University of Wyoming, so hopefully he has the time. He’s only sixty-years old, so he should have the energy.
Tennessee- Bob Corker (R)- Tennessee, like the rest of Appalachia, has emerged as one of the most challenging places for Democrats to compete in the Obama-era. The situation is similar to Wyoming. Phil Bredeson recently finished two terms as governor, and he was relatively popular. I think his poll-ratings suffered near the end, but he can look back to a successful run, and he has a record as very moderate Democrat. He openly opposed to enactment of health care reform, for example. He certainly would not be the kind of Democrat we’d like to see, and would probably fit into the Joe Manchin mold. Yet, it’s hard to think of anyone better suited to take on Sen. Corker. There are some recently retire House members like Bart Gordon who would probably be more progressive, but they retired for a reason (being a conventional Democrat is not currently a very viable position in Tennessee).
Nevada- John Ensign (R)- There are some signs that Ensign intends to run for reelection. If he does, and if he somehow wins the Republican nomination, this seat will be ripe for the picking. If Ensign retires or is defeated in the nominating process this will be at least an open seat. The frontrunner is Rep. Shelley Berkley, but she has delayed announcing her intentions. A more unconventional candidate would be Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman. Goodman is a former Democrat who is now an independent and who has openly clashed with the Obama administration. Goodman is a very controversial character, having once told a room of fourth graders about his fondness for Bombay Sapphire Gin, and openly advocating legalized prostitution in Clark County. But he’s also one of the country’s most colorful politicians. Thinking of him as a U.S. Senator calls to mind the scene in Risky Business when they tell Joel, “Princeton can use a man like you.” There may be other candidates who can make a run at this seat. It’s really a critical pickup if we’re going to avoid losing control of the Senate.
Utah- Orrin Hatch (R)- Winning this seat will require a bit of luck. Utah has an unusual nominating process, where a party convention can determine the nominee if the vote is overwhelming enough. This is how incumbent Bob Bennett lost his seat. He wasn’t even on the ballot for the primary. If Hatch is rejected by the party faithful, this will be an open seat. Rep. Jim Matheson might have a chance to win the seat against a divided Republican Party. Unfortunately, Matheson would probably have to commit to running before knowing whether Hatch would be his opponent. If Matheson did win the seat, he’d probably be even more conservative than Ben Nelson and Dave Freudenthal. But a seat is a seat, and control of the Senate could hang in the balance.
Arizona- Jon Kyl (R)- After Scott Brown and John Ensign, Sen. Kyl is the most vulnerable Republican up for reelection in 2012. Arizona’s politics are probably the most acrimonious of any state in the country right now, but the state is trending blue and it won’t have John McCain on the top of the ticket next time around. The question is who do the Democrats have to offer as a candidate? Recently defeated Reps. Harry Mitchell and Ann Fitzpatrick could be possibilities. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano would be a very interesting pick.
Indiana- Richard Lugar (R)- Lugar is going to get a Tea Party challenge and he’ll probably win easily. But if he decides the hassle isn’t worth it and retires, or if he is unexpectedly defeated, then you could see this seat become competitive. Again, the roster of viable Democrats is made up of some of the most conservative Democrats. Former Reps. Baron Hill, Brad Ellsworth, etc.
Maine- Olympia Snowe (R)- The Republican Party of Maine appears to have lost its mind and they have a new half-insane governor. Maybe Snowe will get tea-bagged. If she’s the nominee she’s going to win reelection. But we should be prepared with someone, just in case the seat comes open. Frankly, I’d try to flip Snowe and get her to caucus with the Dems. She’s be to the left of most of the Democrats on this list.
Mississippi- Roger Wicker (R)- This seat is probably unwinnable, but recently defeated Rep. Gene Taylor could at least make a race of it. He was the most conservative Democrat in the House and never gave us a vote we actually needed. I’d still recruit him to run. If he’d commit to vote for a Democratic majority leader, it could be decisive.
As a progressive, this exercise is deeply depressing. Even if we do maintain control of the Senate, we will only do it with candidates who are far to the right of center. The country really is in a center-right mode right now. I don’t know what to do about it. What do you think?
