Steve Benen thinks that there is a 70% likelihood that the government will shut down on March 4th because Congress will not be able to produce a continuing resolution. I’d place the odds at closer to 100%. After all, even in the extremely unlikely event that Congress does come together to pass something, the president will simply veto it. The only reason I hesitate to guarantee a shutdown is that Congress may decide to pass a very short-lived CR in order to buy some more time. Maybe they’ll fund the government for another 30-60 days. But there is no chance that the Democrats in the Senate or the president will sign-off on anything remotely resembling what the House Republicans are offering. And there is equally no chance that the House Republicans will come to their senses in the next two weeks, one of which will find them on vacation. If you depend on a Social Security check, you better tell your landlord the rent will be late, or start hectoring your relatives for a loan.