Right now, much of Libya is celebrating and even giving our president credit for the downfall of the Gaddafi regime. I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade, but we’ve seen similar things in the past. We watched Iraqis dance on the face of a fallen Saddam Hussein statue and celebrate the collapse of his regime. But the next thing that happened was a total breakdown of social order. Professor Juan Cole is very optimistic about where Libya is headed, and I don’t discount his predictions. I just remain skeptical that you can take the lid off a totalitarian government like Gaddafi’s without things flying out of the bottle.
As a general matter, dictators don’t repress people for the sheer sadistic pleasure of it, but because they preside over societies with great internal divisions. In Syria, an Alawite minority lords it over a Sunni majority. In Bahrain, a Sunni majority lords it over a Shi’a majority. The Soviet Union was made up of many different ethnicities, with substantial religious diversity. Dictators can be more or less benevolent or sadistic depending on their character, but it’s rare for a leader to kill people for the hell of it. Contrary to Prof. Cole’s assertions, I don’t single out Arab countries when I make this observation.
Every country has it’s own particular challenges. We had slavery. The United Kingdom has Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Spain, Germany, and Italy didn’t easily become unified countries, nor did they easily embrace democracy. Their ethnic and/or religious diversity may have played a direct role in their turn to fascism.
So, it really is very early to be saying ‘Mission Accomplished’ in Libya. Not to pee in anyone’s Wheaties, but we need to temper our enthusiasm a bit.
