I don’t want to overhype the developing divisions in Libya, but don’t say I didn’t warn you that tribal and regional factions would emerge and fight over the spoils of power once Gaddafi was driven out. It’s too early to predict a continuation of the civil war, but it remains a real risk. The capital remains relatively calm, which is a very positive sign. But it also seems unlikely that all the factions can be satisfied that they’re getting their fair share. I’m not going to pretend that I understand the dynamics in play, but that’s kind of the point. I highly doubt that our government knows who it wants to back and why they want to back them.
The country was little more than a loose federation of regions and tribes before Colonel Qaddafi came to power. His reliance on favoritism and repression to maintain control did little to bridge Libya’s regional, ethnic and ideological divisions. Nor did the rebels who ousted Colonel Qaddafi ever organize themselves into a unified force. Rebels from the western mountains, the mid-coastal city of Misurata and the eastern city of Benghazi each fought independently, and often rolled their eyes in condescension at one another.
An Islamist was named to head the new Tripoli Military Council and he appears to have the full backing of Qatar, which armed and trained the Tripoli Brigades during the war.
“This guy is just a creation of the Qataris and their money, and they are sponsoring the element of Muslim extremism here,” another council member from the western region said. “The revolutionary fighters are extremely unhappy and surprised. He is the commander of nothing!”
Mixed with the ideological concerns, however, was an equal measure of provincial rivalry over who did more to liberate Tripoli. Not only was Mr. Hasadi an Islamist, the council member argued, but he had done less than the western rebels in the fight for the capital.
“People in the west were saying to each other, ‘What? This kid? This is rubbish! What about our top commanders?’ ” the council member said.
I’m not saying that the case is proven that we should not have gotten involved in Libya’s internal affairs. But, at the same time, it is far too early for any triumphalism. The fighting might be over and the country could be headed for a bright future. But that is far from guaranteed. There is a lot of money on the line, and now there are a lot more guns, ammunition, and trained fighters to fight for that money.
