The issue of whether or not Palestine should push for formal United Nations’ recognition as a state is complex. In the abstract, it’s kind of a no-brainer, but when you get down to details it isn’t as clear that the effort is wise. The United States feels compelled to veto the effort even though a veto would place all Americans at risk and create a totally avoidable national security threat. The Palestinians would very much like to have a diplomatic victory over Israel and to get moving in a direction that might end the impasse we’re all experiencing in the peace negotiations. Yet, they have not succeeded in getting the Americas to go along with their plan, so their efforts will do real damage to America’s national security and standing in the world. I know it is a bit nuanced, but the likely outcome is more anti-American terror. And we saw how America’s response to terror attacks worked for the Palestinians over the last decade. There was no movement on peace and Israel had a free hand to expand settlements, invade Lebanon, and use a very heavy hand in Gaza. Terror doesn’t work. The Second Intifada and the 9/11 attacks strengthened Israeli hardliners both in Israel and in Washington DC. Additionally, isolating America diplomatically is problematic for the Palestinians. It might seem like there is no alternative, but the White House is trying to craft one.
Senior officials said the administration wanted to avoid not only a veto but also the more symbolic and potent General Assembly vote that would leave the United States and only a handful of other nations in the opposition. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic maneuverings, said they feared that in either case a wave of anger could sweep the Palestinian territories and the wider Arab world at a time when the region is already in tumult. President Obama would be put in the position of threatening to veto recognition of the aspirations of most Palestinians or risk alienating Israel and its political supporters in the United States.
“If you put the alternative out there, then you’ve suddenly just changed the circumstances and changed the dynamic,” a senior administration official involved in the flurry of diplomacy said Thursday. “And that’s what we’re trying very much to do.”
There is momentum behind Palestine’s drive for recognition, and their effort probably cannot be stopped. Yet, a failed recognition-drive that arouses anti-American terrorism and isolates America diplomatically, puts the Palestinians’ interests at risk, too. They should keep their ears open up to the last moment.
In essence, the administration is trying to translate the broad principles Mr. Obama outlined in May into a concrete road map for talks that would succeed where past efforts have failed: satisfy Israel, give the Palestinians an alternative to going to the United Nations and win the endorsement of the Europeans.
Diplomats are laboring to formulate language that would bridge stubborn differences over how to treat Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and over Israel’s demand for recognition of its status as a Jewish state. A statement by the Quartet would be more than a symbolic gesture. It would outline a series of meetings and actions to resume talks to create a Palestinian state.
The Quartet’s members are divided over the proposal’s terms and continue to negotiate them among themselves, and with the Palestinians and Israelis.
In other words, the international community recognizes that a vetoed vote to recognize Palestine isn’t going to make things better and is looking for any alternative. The problem is, of course, that the only alternative is a plausible road map to peace, and no one can provide one.
Get ready for the Ugly.
