I’m interested to see what today’s elections will bring, even though I think they’ll be of limited use in making predictions about next year’s federal elections. At least in some of the high-profile races and issues, it looks to be a good night for the Democrats. I expect that Ohioans will reject Kasich’s anti-collective bargaining reforms, that Maine will restore same-day voter registration, and that there’s a good chance that the people of Mississippi will reject the personhood amendment. The Democrats will also probably win the gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and West Virginia, which are two of Obama’s weakest states. San Francisco might even get its first Chinese mayor, although I don’t know that he’s the best candidate. And there’s reason for optimism in some of the state legislature races, including in Iowa and Virginia.
On the other hand, this is a low-turnout election and Democrats generally fare poorly in low-turnout elections. I’m concerned that I received a robocall yesterday concerning a school board race. I talked to the Democratic candidate today at the polls, and she said that she’s never seen anything like the campaign being waged against her. Where is all this money coming from, and how far spread is it around the country? We could be in for an ugly surprise on the local level.
