In some respects there’s nothing too surprising about the results of the Republican caucuses and primaries so far. A religious conservative won in Iowa, a Massachusetts moderate won in New Hampshire, and a Georgian demagogue carried his neighboring state of South Carolina. That’s basically what we all would have expected twenty years ago. Candidates used to have a lot more regional appeal, and perhaps the pundits are discounting how persistent that trend really is. I think Romney got too much credit for winning New Hampshire, and it’s completely possible that Gingrich is going to get too much credit for winning South Carolina. Maybe we need a more neutral site, and Florida also borders Georgia and has some natural advantages for Gingrich.
Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan are coming up after Florida, and they all present favorable terrain for Romney. Arizona and Nevada have significant Mormon populations, and Michigan is where Romney grew up and where his father served as governor. So, while I think Romney’s candidacy is on the rocks, I can see a path for him to bounce back.
What’s different about this cycle is that Gingrich would have been wiped out without his Super PAC money. Romney could have wrapped this election up in much the same way that Al Gore used Iowa and New Hampshire to crush a formidable challenge from Bill Bradley. But Gingrich is still standing. Even Rick Santorum is still standing. They would have been finished in any other cycle. As for Ron Paul, he’s more of a grassroots candidate, but his campaign probably wouldn’t be possible without the internet as an organizational and fundraising aid.
People assume that Romney will prevail because he has advantages in every traditional metric. Ordinarily, that would be enough, especially against opponents as deeply flawed as Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul. But it may not be enough for two reasons. First, rich assholes who are not under the control of the GOP power apparatus are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on Romney’s opponents. Second, Mitt Romney is a terrible politician.
