Let me begin by stating that I believe in the end, Romney will win the Republican nomination. Mott has too much money, too much organization and opponents with a tendency to self-destruct. Newt at some point will implode. He always does. It’s just a question of when. So the long term problem for Mitt (once his nomination is secure) is how to convince the public that he’s a great guy who deserves to be President, and has a plan for a brighter future. He has to convince the American people that he has a positive vision for our country, one that will get people back to work and return our nation to a sound economic footing.
Unfortunately for him, he has a giant anchor around his neck: the republican base. And trust me this ain’t your grandfather’s Republican party. They don’t want to hear about the “good news” of Mitt as their candidate. They want to revel in their hatred, anger and victimization. They want him to go negative, as negative as possible. And if he won’t deliver the goods, they won’t turn out to vote for him.
Here’s a classic blast from the Republican presidential campaigning past:
What a happy, joyous campaign ad! But that was the fifties. They just don’t make them like that anymore. These days most political ads are directed to attack one’s opponent, not promote good feelings about the candidate. Probably the last effective “positive ad” I can remember from a Republican is the famous “Morning in America” ad by Reagan in 1984 (though it does get just a little bit snippy on the end):
Unfortunately, most Republicans running for President since Reagan have focused on demonizing their Democratic adversaries rather than promoting their own qualifications for higher office. For example, who can forget the infamous Willie Horton ad by “Poppy” Bush against Governor Michael Dukakis in 1988?
Ah yes, both the “not tough enough on crime” plus the not so subtle “DANGER, DANGER WILL ROBINSON, THERE’S A BLACK MAN ON THE LOOSE!” aspect to the message. Because we all know that Democrats want Big Black Mass Murderers to rampage through the streets raping and Killing all the white women. Nonetheless it was an effective if controversial ad, and marked a turning point. Oh attack ads had always been used, but rarely on the Presidential political stage had one so negative and so explicit been employed by a major party’s candidate.
These days it de rigueur for presidential campaigns to go negative, early and often. “We Like Ike” and “Morning in America” seem like distant memories. Since Willie Horton, Republicans have almost always played to American’s fears and prejudices rather than to our shared values and common interests. They have employed a strategy of divide and conquer, pitting one group against another and relying on resentment of other Americans to get out the vote on their side. Sometimes it has worked and sometimes it has failed but they’ve stuck with it.
As we’ve observed during this year’s GOP nomination battle, attack ads are the order of the day, even against fellow Republicans, far more than in prior primary campaign battles. Just look at this ad Romney’s Super Pac is running against the Newt:
Pretty harsh even if a lot of it is true. Then again what would it take to make a positive ad about Mitt? That he became rich and successful at making money off of others people’s money? That he knows his way around offshore Cayman Islands and Swiss Bank accounts? That the big money on Wall Street desperately want him to be the Republican candidate? That his Mormon faith isn’t really that different from fundamentalist evangelicals who view Mormonism as a dangerous heretical cult? That when he says corporations deserve big tax breaks because they are people too, that’s a good thing for the rest of us? You can see his problem.
How to portray Mitt as a good guy ready to lead the nation? It’s quite a dilemma. I guess he could run ads about his great performance as the CEO of the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics, but that’s a little stale at this point. He could say he was for health care reform before Obama, but that won’t sit well with his base now will it? Let’s face it: Mitt is a pretty stiff guy, and not very likable. He’s led a charmed life because he was born into wealth and privilege and used those advantages to make himself richer. He can’t fake folksy like George Bush, he’s not a member of the right church for social conservatives, and he’s inextricably tied to Wall Street corruption at this point. His biggest political accomplishment, Massachusetts’ universal health care plan, is despised by Republicans because it so closely resembles the health care reform law Obama and the Democrats passed.
So, sadly, Mitt will have no choice but to point the finger at Obama and say to the public, “Vote for me because at least I’m a white guy and not some damn Socialist Muslim Ni**er.” And if he won’t, his Super Pac funders will. Mitt, with no real values of his own except an overweening ambition to be President, will ultimately sign off on this approach because he has no choice. There isn’t much there there when you look at Mitt up close and personal. The question our country faces is will such a mean spirited strategy, based solely on dog whistle racism succeed? This summer and fall we will find out.
