The disorder and confusion in the Republican ranks is getting harder and harder to ignore. It’s at the point now that Establishment Republicans are actually beginning to hope for a contested convention in Tampa so that some alternative to Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul can be put on the ticket. This is a change from not too long ago when it was hoped that Romney would wrap up the nomination in short order. What’s changed is that the power brokers have realized that Romney is a much worse politician than they thought, and that, so long as he is still being challenged, he can’t wrap up the delegates he needs to be coronated for months. They no longer think they can win with Romney, or even prevent a bloodbath with him.
With concerns over Romney rising after a series of gaffes and polls showing him losing to Rick Santorum in Michigan — a state in which he was born and raised — and with a protracted primary fight ahead, some Republican activists are desperately looking for alternatives. Most concede that it’s late in the game and such a scenario is highly unlikely.
It’s too late for new candidates to gain the ballot access they would need to win the nomination through the ordinary process. So, this is largely a lot of huffing and puffing and panic. Yet, a brokered convention could still happen. It will require Gingrich to win some southern states and for Santorum to continue winning states in the Midwest, while Romney churns along picking up wins here and there.
When people say that Romney needs to win Michigan, they really mean something else. Romney needs to knock one of his opponents out of the race, or at least assure that they aren’t winning any contests. If he loses in Michigan, he’s not going to knock anyone out on Super Tuesday. And that will mean that he may be at serious risk of arriving in Tampa with a mere plurality of the votes. He could conceivably fall behind Santorum in the delegate count, which would probably be fatal to his chances at a contested convention. But he doesn’t want to deal with a contested convention even if he has the delegate lead. I don’t know how many more ways the Republican base can say that they don’t want Romney. They’ve flirted with every other candidate in the race, excepting Hunstman. Now even the Establishment is flirting with other candidates.
If Romney wins Michigan and Arizona, he may keep Gingrich down low enough that he doesn’t win anywhere (including Georgia) on Super Tuesday. That could be enough for him to win the nomination outright, and sooner than many fear. But if he loses in Michigan and Gingrich scores some wins on Super Tuesday, I think Romney will have to shift his strategy to trying to win the nomination at the convention.
