If video killed the radio star, it appears that the internet killed the political convention bounce. Between 1968 and 1992, the only challenger not to get a double digit bounce out of his convention was George McGovern, and he still got a bounce bigger than Bush in 2000, Kerry in 2004, or Obama in 2008. McGovern’s convention was, of course, a tremendous disaster because his running mate turned out to have received electric shock therapy.
Before the inception of the internet, most Americans were much more influenced by the political coverage of the conventions on television. People learned a lot about Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis, and Bill Clinton by watching their conventions. They learned almost nothing about George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Barack Obama by watching theirs. I think Mitt Romney will discover that the trend remains true.
Today’s conventions are basically like big ad buys. You get a small and unsustainable bounce out of them, but they matter very little.
In 2008, the Democratic convention didn’t move the polls much but the flawless execution solidified the impression that Obama knew how to do big things. In 2012, the Republican convention had a lot of hiccups, which bolstered the idea that Romney can’t execute under pressure. We saw it with his foreign trip, and we saw it in Tampa. He reinforced negative perceptions about himself. He”ll get a little bounce just because he got a lot of attention. But it won’t last.
