As much as I enjoy the feeling of schadenfreude, I think it is unfortunate that the presidential race grew close enough after the first debate to give the Republicans hope. First of all, if they had known how screwed they really were, they might have stayed home allowing us to win one or two more Senate seats and to make more gains in the House. But, secondly, they truly seem to be in shock. And there is an apocalyptic feeling to their shock. You have Robert Stacy McCain saying “we are permanently and irretrievably screwed” and “doomed beyond all hope of redemption.” You have Mark Steyn quoting a British MP (in a different context):
“We’re all f***ed. I’m f***ed. You’re f***ed. The whole department’s f***ed. It’s been the biggest c**k-up ever and we’re all completely f***ed.”
You have David Gelernter at the National Review saying that Democrats “reject the American republic of God-fearing individuals in favor of the European ideal,” and basically calling for civil war. You have Bill O’Reilly saying “it’s not a traditional America anymore…the white establishment is now the minority.” It isn’t hard to find more examples, but you get the idea. The Republicans have not had time to prepare for this defeat and a lot of them have gotten pretty high on their own supply of bullshit.
But some of what they’re decrying is real. Team Obama demonstrated last night that their coalition is durable. The Democrats have a majority that can win the Electoral College for years to come, and their advantage is only going to grow as the electorate gets younger and more diverse. Losing will have consequences for the Republicans. The makeup of the federal courts will continue to trend away from them and their opportunity to overturn Roe v. Wade was stripped away from them a moment before they reached the finish line. Despite the reluctance of the House of Representatives, ObamaCare will be fully phased in and become a permanent structure of our economy. Millions will get subsidies to help pay for health care, creating a new coalition of “dependents” who will not give a fair hearing to any Tea Partier who wants to take away their benefits. This group will include masses of the white working poor who the Republicans rely upon to vote for them out of fear and anger and racial solidarity and religious conviction. And, in any case, the new generation isn’t sold on the Culture War. They helped elect a lesbian to the Senate last night and to legalize gay marriage in Maine and Maryland. They decriminalized marijuana in Colorado and Washington. Republicans who defined themselves as culture warriors lost their contests last night in Indiana and Missouri, and in lower profile races across the country.
If there was a demographic lesson last night it was that the Republicans cannot remain a party of white people that is implacably opposed to Latino immigration reform. They managed to polarize the white vote sufficiently to give themselves a chance and to roll up big margins in white areas sufficient to hold the House of Representatives, but at what cost? They lost Florida and Virginia and Colorado and Nevada precisely because they alienated Latinos. And how well would it all have worked if the president were not black. In 2016, the GOP will almost definitely face a white presidential candidate.
This all adds up to create a panicked and existential sense of loss for conservatives, as if something has been lost that can never be retrieved. Whether it is their sense that America is going to become more like Europe or that whites will no longer have a privileged place in our culture or that people are going to turn away from traditional values or just that the GOP is going to have to become less conservative to compete, Republicans are feeling very down at the moment.
And they are about to have a wedge smashed into their party over the fiscal cliff. Perhaps their worst curse was to retain power in the House of Representatives because they now will have to find a way to fund the government and they can’t do that and keep their pledges to Grover Norquist to never raise taxes.
Still, they shouldn’t feel so depressed. The Democrats are about to feel the same wedge since the president can’t avoid a Grand Bargain that will infuriate his progressive base. Our failure to retake the House has assured that. And, the truth is, Obama was never a radical and he didn’t propose anything that would change this country in any kind of fundamental way. The GOP kept telling people that until they believed it themselves. Most of the changes that concern the conservatives were coming whether or not the Democrats controlled the White House. Obama just sped things up.
Finally, conservatives should look on the bright side. They didn’t like Mitt Romney anyway. No one does.
