I mean to post this election night but just wasn’t possible.
At 7:30 pm Mountain Time I called my wife to say I was heading home from a day as a Democratic poll watcher. She told me that she was worried as the exit polls in Colorado showed a 48-48 tie between Romney and Obama.
I told her that Obama would win by 5 points. Why? Because I knew what was predicted for voter turnout. Because I’d spent the entire day in a polling station for two precincts that had 5% black voters and 15% Latino voters. Because 30% of the voters that day had been black or Latino. Because although I did not try to look at any filled-out ballots I saw many of them as people asked me questions. And because literally – no lie – 100% of the ballots I saw from black and Latino voters were for Obama. And because every discussion I had with a black or Latino voter indicated that they were extremely motivated to get their vote counted.
I knew, in short, that the forecasts for minority vote underestimated the reality.
Guess what? Colorado is now 4.7% for Obama. In two weeks they count the provisional ballots. I also know that the provisionals are heavily skewed towards minorities. Anyone want to bet me that Colorado ends up supporting Obama by a margin of at least 5%?
I love the power of the people.
