E.J. Dionne has written an earnest (not tongue-in-cheek) column in the Washington Post calling on the College of Cardinals to select a nun to be the next pope. He has a decent argument even if the idea seems laughable. I’d certainly celebrate if the college followed his advice. Yet, the overall impression on me is sadness. It’s sad that Dionne holds out hope. I respect his deep Catholic faith, as well as the tradition within Catholicism that he represents and extols. But the Church is likely to grow more conservative over time, not less. It is not certain that the next pope will be non-European, but most lists of potential popes have about 70% non-Europeans. Forty-two percent of Catholics are in Latin America, and almost all of the Church’s growth now comes from the Southern Hemisphere. It makes sense that the Church would look outside of Europe for leadership. Not only is Europe the most secular place on Earth, it has almost totally given up on Catholicism. Only in Poland and Ireland (among predominantly Catholic countries), do a majority of people report going to church at least once a month. As the Church moves away from its home in Europe, the secularizing influence of Europe will be diminished, not increased.
Without being cynical, if you think of the Church as a business, there is plenty of room to grow, but not in progressive-minded cultures. The Church will adopt policies best honed to attracting adherents in Africa, the Subcontinent, and other areas with large populations willing to hear a traditionally patriarchal gospel. It doesn’t matter what people in the Bay Area or Hawai’i want. Those are not growth areas for the Church, so I do not foresee a progressive-minded pope, now or any time soon. I’d be happy to be wrong.
