Seeking to repair the damage he did to himself among the party faithful during the immigration reform debate, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has agreed to be the lead sponsor of the “fetal-pain” ban on abortions after twenty weeks of pregnancy. This is the new cause of the pro-life movement, and they have already passed bills in several states and in the House of Representatives. It’s an anti-science bill, since doctors say that a 20-week old fetus cannot experience pain. But the Republicans are emboldened by polling that says that the majority of the people oppose abortions in the second trimester.
A Gallup survey in January found that 64 percent of Americans think an abortion in the second three months of pregnancy should be illegal. As for the last three months, 80 percent feel an abortion that late should be banned.
I think the Republicans put too much emphasis on poll numbers like these. Poll questions never reflect the specific circumstances that might lead a woman to seek an abortion past twenty weeks. In almost all cases, there are significant medical or psychological reasons for abortions that take place that late. And if you polled people on the specific cases, you would get a different result.
But, more than that, the public is broadly supportive of choice, and making yourself the face of one more effort to encroach on women’s rights is unlikely to redound to your benefit. Many on the right are cynical enough to see Rubio as being a naked opportunist who is only pushing this bill to repair his position with the base. But, insofar as this gambit works, the gains Rubio makes with the base will be offset by his losses with the general public. I don’t think the details of the bill really matter.
