Is North Carolina a Bellweather?

I wonder what Charlie Cook thinks about the numbers the GOP is getting in North Carolina. The Tarheel State may be a purple state, but it’s still a southern state that has a lot in common with other southern states like South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee, where there are going to be several Senate elections next year. I don’t think generic congressional numbers mean much at this point in the cycle. I don’t think we can learn much from self-reported independents. What we can learn is that the GOP is cratering in some of their cultural strongholds. With districts so strongly gerrymandered, the only way the Dems can win the midterm elections is if we see nationally what we are already seeing in North Carolina. People are changing their minds rapidly and districts that were drawn to be safe, may no longer be so.