Jonathan Chait has the right idea, but he is making it needlessly complicated. Defecting Republican lawmakers don’t need to actually leave the party. They don’t need to rebrand themselves as independents. They don’t need the business lobby to come in to finance some massive new political project.
First, let’s look at what they are likely to do regardless of any grand scheme. They are likely to defect from the Republican party line and agree to reopen the government and lift the debt ceiling without winning anything tangible in return. They will either do this with Boehner’s open or tacit permission, or they will join a Democratic discharge petition to get it done over the Speaker’s sincere objections.
Once this group takes these courageous actions, they will have effectively cleaved the Republican Party in two. It will matter a lot whether Boehner is with them or against them, but, either way, they will be the objects of conservative ire the likes of which we can hardly imagine.
Still, hailing mainly from New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and California, they will stand a better chance of reelection as Republicans than they would as independents. And their only chance of maintaining their power in this Congress would be if they joined with the Democrats to elect a moderate Republican speaker. It could be Boehner, or it could be someone from their own rump caucus.
If something like this were to happen, it probably would not be too long before the GOP went the way of the Whigs, with northern/suburban and southern/rural factions citing irreconcilable differences. But that could take a decade or more to shake out.
The key here is that this fissure is opening up right now in front of our eyes, and there is plenty of potential for it to not end well. If the moderate Republicans are stupid, or the Democrats aren’t smart, the result could be a right-wing coup instead of a moderate coup. And, in that case, there will be no end to our problems.
