The headline is misleading, but I get what Reid Wilson is saying. For Republican governors who are thinking of running for president, the government shutdown offers them an opportunity to be a little above the fray. They can badmouth Washington in general terms, which is always popular on both sides of the aisle. And they can point out that their governments are open for business.
But I don’t think the government shutdown actually helps these governors’ chances of winning the presidency. And it isn’t going to help Tom Corbett win reelection in Pennsylvania or Rick Snyder in Michigan.
Ground zero is obviously Virginia, where so many people work for the federal government. Open up an Electoral College Calculator and try to find a path to victory for the GOP that doesn’t involve them winning Virginia. (Hint: if the Dems win Virginia in 2016, they can cede Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Florida and still win the election with 272 votes). Anything that damages the GOP brand in Virginia should be of the utmost concern to any potential Republican candidate for the presidency in 2016.
As Dan Balz documents in this morning’s Washington Post, the country is growing increasingly polarized, which means that there are lot of areas of the country where the people think what the Republicans are doing makes some kind of sense. Northern Virginia is not one of those places. The Philly suburbs are not one of those places.
In my opinion, the shutdown is increasing polarization on a lop-sided battlefield that favors the Democrats on the presidential level. It will increase passions on both sides, but the only movement from one party to the other will come from people in the middle who will be alarmed at the financial brinksmanship of the Republicans or who have directly detrimental experiences as a result of the shutdown.
It isn’t good news for Republican gubernatorial candidates who are running for election or re-election in blue states, and it isn’t good news for whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination in 2016.
It’s also creating real stressors on the Republican coalition because they have quite a few representatives who are serving in states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and California that are culturally alienated from the ObamaCare revolt and whose base is centered in the financial industry. These seats, along with the ones the GOP holds in Virginia, will be the ones that become vulnerable and that could fall if the backlash is severe enough.
On the whole, the shutdown isn’t doing the Republicans any favors, which is one main reason why the Democrats aren’t too worried about it lasting a while.
