Al Hunt talked to some (mostly unspecified) “political wise men” and came up with the following odds on the 2016 Republican nominee for president:
Jeb Bush 4:1
Scott Walker 6:1
Mike Huckabee 7:1
Rand Paul 8:1
Chris Christie 10:1
Marco Rubio 10:1
Ted Cruz 12:1
Paul Ryan 15:1
Rick Perry 20:1
Bobby Jindal 30:1
Dark Horse (including Santorum) 40:1
It’s an enlightening exercise to try to think of this in gambling terms. Which of those bets would you be willing to make?
These odds ignore history a little bit, not that that is necessarily a mistake. If you rely on history, however, it argues for much better odds for Paul Ryan and Rick Santorum. The GOP tends to nominate old VP’s and VP candidates (Nixon, Dole, Poppy) or former runner-ups (Poppy, Dole, McCain, Romney).
I understand Hunt’s reason for dropping Ryan down is that he doesn’t think he will run. If he does run, his odds would have to be higher.
As the 2012 runner-up, Santorum has the right to think it’s his turn. To see himself put in the Dark Horse category must be galling. Heh.
