Among American political analysts, Ron Brownstein is better than average. But he can still be frustrating. When you start to write about the 2016 presidential election and respective prospects of the two major parties, you need to begin with the Electoral College. Yes, it is important that white people’s trust in government is down and that the Republicans are continuing to struggle to attract non-white voters. But, much more important is the Republican Party’s need to find a path to 270 Electoral College votes. So, for example, if you are going to posit that growing skepticism about government among whites is going to pose a problem for the eventual Democratic nominee, you ought to show how that might manifest itself. Which states that voted for Gore and Kerry and (especially) Barack Obama are likely to move over into the red column.
All things being equal, heavily white states like New Hampshire and Iowa would be good candidates for this. Are there any signs that those two states are moving against the Democrats? If so, why are the Democratic senate candidates in those two states consistently ahead in the polls?
Moreover, the radical rightward lurch of the Republican Party isn’t going to do them any favors in the multiethnic suburbs of Northern Virginia or Philadelphia. Their strident anti-immigration reform stance won’t help them win in Colorado or New Mexico or Nevada or Florida.
And, if Hillary Clinton is the Democrat’s nominee, her appeal among white working class voters will eat into the Republicans’ numbers in southeast Ohio, likely taking that state out of play.
The Democrats could lose Florida, Virginia and Ohio and still win by carrying all the rest of Obama’s 2012 haul. But let’s say that the Republicans don’t win Florida. In that case, the Democrats could lose Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico and still win with 271 Electoral Votes.
So, what are the Republicans doing differently from 2008 and 2012 that will allow them to win Florida? Or Virginia? Or Colorado?
When you realize just how behind the eight-ball the Republicans are, you begin to realize how politically insane their current strategies are if they hope to win the presidency. It’s not enough to raise the general skepticism of government. They need to convince voters that they represent their values, and their brand of extreme social conservatism combined with their nativism and xenophobia just doesn’t resonate in the places they need to win.
