Before we get to talking about the Senate, I want you to consider the following possibility. Imagine that tomorrow night the following incumbent Republican governors will lose their bids for reelection:
1. Paul LePage of Maine
2. Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania
3. Rick Snyder of Michigan
4. Scott Walker of Wisconsin
5. Sam Brownback of Kansas
6. Rick Scott of Florida.
7. Sean Parnell of Alaska
I don’t think this far-fetched in the least, and on a good night Governor Nathan Deal of Georgia might lose, too.
Now, don’t get me wrong. There are Democrats running for governor who might lose tomorrow, too, including in deep blue Connecticut and Massachusetts. But before we start talking about an epic beat down for the Democratic Party, we should keep these governors’ races in mind. A governor has a lot more power than any individual senator. And losing control of big states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and (perhaps) Georgia would be a very big deal.
So, keep your eyes on these races because the Republicans are at risk of suffering a significant bloodbath tomorrow even if things go as expected in the Senate races.
There are two things that are most important to keep in mind about these Senate races. The first is that pretty much every seriously contested race in the country is polling at or near the margin of error, meaning that even the night before the election it is very hard to be certain about who will win almost any of these contests. The second is that the polls show a small but quite decisive advantage to the Republican Party, and the late momentum has been almost all in the GOP’s direction.
There’s a background to these elections that I am not really going to get into, but the basic facts are that the third of the Senate up for election tomorrow is the only third that comes from states that Mitt Romney carried in his 2012 presidential bid, and this is a midterm election with low turn-out which favors the Republicans, and this is the sixth-year of a Democratic president’s term, which also favors Republicans. Democratic senators running for reelection in Romney states are at a very severe disadvantage, and the ones running in blue states aren’t likely to do as well as they did in 2008. This is baked into the cake, and it’s a major reason why the outlook for the Democrats is so bleak.
With all that said, let’s get started. The Democrats and their affiliated independents (Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine) currently control 55 senate seats, while Mitch McConnell’s Republicans control 45. Because Joe Biden, the vice president, breaks ties in the Senate, the GOP must net six Senate seats in order to win control of the upper chamber.
I’m going to go in alphabetical order and ignore races where the outcome isn’t in the remotest doubt.
Alaska
For simplicity, I am going to use the RealClearPolitics average of polls, which may not be weighted in a way most favorable to Democrats. In Alaska, the Republican challenger is favored by 2.4%. The Begich campaign has an outstanding ground game that could erase Dan Sullivan’s advantage and I doubt we’ll be certain about the winner of this race for a week or more. It could come down to less than a thousand votes separating them, and I consider this a coin-flip. But I am an optimist, and I think the revolt against the Republican governor and the unstable behavior of Rep. Don Young indicate that the state’s GOP is in a bit of disarray.
PICK: Mark Begich (D)- Democratic Hold
Arkansas
I expected Mark Pryor to hold this seat despite all the disadvantages he needs to overcome, but the RealClearPolitics average of polls now shows Tom Cotton with a 7.1% lead. That seems insurmountable, but the focus down there seems to be on whether or not the Cotton campaign has been advertising on gay hook-up sites and everyone says that Pryor’s turnout machine is very impressive. There’s a hot governor’s race here, too, and the Democrats are desperate to hold on. The problem is that the polling momentum has swung dramatically Cotton’s way in the last days of the campaign. I think Pryor could still pull off a shocker, but that is what it would be.
PICK: Tom Cotton (R)- Republican Pick-Up
Colorado
I never expected Mark Udall to be in jeopardy in this race. That he looks unlikely to win at this point is the biggest shock of the campaign for me. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has Cory Gardner with a narrow 2.5% advantage, but he’s been leading in every recent poll. This could be another coin-flip with the potential for a recount. But I just have a bad feeling about this race. Democrats have been arguing with the polls here for two months, and I don’t think that is a good sign. Perhaps the pollsters are undercounting Latinos, overly discounting the impact of voting by mail, and underestimating the Democrats’ ground game. A 2.5% polling advantage is not a commanding lead. But, in this case, I am betting that the coin-flip goes against us.
PICK: Cory Gardner (R)- Republican Pick-Up
Georgia
Incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss is retiring and he will be replaced by either professional outsourcer David Perdue or political legacy Michelle Nunn. To avoid a January run-off, the winner needs to win an outright majority, which appears to be a challenge for either candidate considering the closeness of the polls and that there is a Libertarian candidate pulling down three percent of the vote. But this is another contest where the late movement is in the Republicans’ direction. I think there is a very good chance that Michelle Nunn will win a plurality of the vote tomorrow, but that won’t win her the seat. I am not going to make any predictions about the outcome of runoff elections because it is too early to do that, but Democrats have struggled historically in runoff elections in Georgia.
PICK: Michelle Nunn (D)- Runoff
Iowa
This is another seat that I thought would be safe for the Democrats but it hasn’t turned out that way. Republican challenger Joni Ernst has been consistently leading by the narrowest of margins and has a 1.9% advantage in the average of polls. What is going to pull her over the top are the coattails of the popular incumbent governor, Terry Branstad. Bruce Braley is a better person than a candidate, and it’s upsetting that he is headed to a loss against a certifiable lunatic, but that’s what it looks like to me. If Joni Ernst doesn’t win this race, things may not look so bad for the Democrats.
PICK: Joni Ernst (R)- Republican Pick-Up
Kansas
I’ve written a lot about this race, and it really comes down to whether moderate Republicans are going to follow through on a revolt against the conservative establishment of their state. I think they will, and I think both Governor Sam Brownback and Senator Pat Roberts will go down to defeat. I also think Greg Orman made a deal with the Democrats that he would caucus with them if their candidate dropped out of the race. But the average of polls shows only a 0.8% advantage for Orman at this point, so nothing is certain.
PICK: Greg Orman (I)- Democratic Pick-Up
Kentucky
This one hurts. This election has been hotly-contested all year, but it seems to be slipping away from Alison Lundegan Grimes at the end. McConnell has a 7.2% advantage in the average of polls, which is just too big to overcome in a state where the Democrats do not have a great ground game.
PICK: Mitch McConnell (R)- Republican Hold
Louisiana
I think Mary Landrieu will win a plurality of the vote tomorrow, but not a majority, and she will head to a runoff election in which she will not be favored. She’s the queen of winning close elections, though, so don’t count her out.
PICK: Mary Landrieu (D)- Runoff
New Hampshire
This race has become a nail-biter with Jeanne Shaheen holding a paltry 0.8% advantage in the average of polls. Honestly, Scott Brown is a better politician, but he’ll have to pull an upset to win. We’ll know the results here early, and if Shaheen loses you should just go to sleep and hibernate for the next year or so because it’s going to a bloodbath.
PICK: Jeanne Shaheen (D)- Democratic Hold
North Carolina
The polls keep showing Kay Hagan narrowly ahead but I am not so sure. Like with Shaheen, if Hagan goes down then we’ll be in for a world of pain. I think Thom Tillis is just awful enough to lose, and that is what I am predicting.
PICK: Kay Hagan (D)- Democratic Hold
The other races of interest are taking place in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia where I expect Republican pick-ups and in Michigan where I expect a Democratic hold.
So, where do these election predictions put us?
We have Republican pick-ups in:
1. Arkansas
2. Colorado
3. Iowa
4. Montana
5. South Dakota
6. West Virginia
We have a Democratic pick-up in Kansas.
And we have runoffs in Georgia and Louisiana where the Democrats will not be favored.
If I am right about these predictions, here is how things will look prior to the runoffs and after all the recounts and challenges are done.
The Republicans will have 50 seats, and the Democrats will have 47 seats. Greg Orman of Kansas will presumably caucus with the Democrats, but that is not assured. Control of the Senate will be the Republicans’ unless Nunn and Landrieu win their runoff elections and Orman agrees to caucus with the Democrats.
In that case, the split would be 50-50 with three independents caucusing with the Dems and Joe Biden breaking the tie.
It matters hugely what happens in Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa. And we can’t lose New Hampshire or North Carolina, either. If I am wrong about Udall and Braley losing and right about Begich winning, then things look quite a lot better.
But my prediction is that the GOP will reach 50 seats with a very good shot at reaching 51 or 52 after the runoffs are completed.
Thank God that the governors’ races look more promising.
