According to this old delegate tracker at the New York Times, Barack Obama netted 10 delegates out of Oregon in 2008 (31 for him, 21 for Hillary Clinton) when he won the primary there on May 20th. It was a actually a pretty bad day for him, not that it mattered at that late date, because while he was winning in Oregon he was getting absolutely shellacked in Kentucky (14 delegates for him, 37 for Hillary).
In the grand scheme of things, the delegate counts, the win in Oregon and the big loss in Kentucky, didn’t matter in the least. Obama had effectively wrapped up the nomination months earlier. As for Washington State, the final allocation of delegates were not made until the state party convention on June 15th. In the end, Obama had a big advantage in total delegates but only a modest nine vote advantage in pledged delegates who were obligated to vote for him at the convention.
I mention this because Oregon and Washington are areas where Bernie Sanders should do well. If he’s going to actually win any primaries or net some delegates in some states, the Pacific Northwest is one of his most promising areas to do it. As the Washington Post notes, he’s been drawing “eye-popping” crowds there, getting an overflow attendance of about 28,000 in Portland, yesterday.
But it’s not a region that has enough delegates or that fits into the calendar in a way that it can much influence the contest. The rallies help Sanders identify potential organizers, some of whom can work phones or go work for him in more vital regions and states. They help him raise money. And, at this stage, they show that he’s got enthusiastic supporters which helps him with the media coverage he gets.
So, I see what he’s doing and he’s having some success with it. But it’s easy to get irrationally exuberant about his chances. The Pacific Northwest just isn’t going to decide the nominee.
